MW: Philly Fed report evokes dark images from economist
Eric Green’s analysis of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s manufacturing index report reads like a thesaurus of alternative ways to say the data really stunk.
“The Philly Fed data was exceptionally weak, almost macabre,” Green, chief market economist at TD Securities, wrote in a note Thursday, “Rarely have I seen such an ugly report soup to nuts without a more nefarious turn on the approach.”
He tries to say the numbers don’t actually mean the U.S. is heading into a recession or is already in one.
But combined with the New York Fed’s similar Empire Index, it points to a much lower reading for the national factory index put out by the Institute for Supply Management – possibly under the threshold that would indicate the industry is contracting again.
“Looking at the Empire and Philly Fed indexes would suggest the ISM for August is looking equally freakish,” Green said.
