ET:Oil seen over $100 in 2012 despite fears of global recession: Poll
LONDON: Oil prices will weaken only slightly and hover above $100 a barrel next year, despite fears of a global economic recession and a steep fall in demand, a Reuters poll showed on Wednesday.
Forecasts in a poll of 32 analysts showed Brent crude averaging $106.80 a barrel next year, down from a forecast of $107.90 a barrel in last month's poll. It was a third consecutive month of downward price revision by analysts.
US light crude oil , also known as West Texas Intermediate (WTI), will average $92.60 a barrel in 2012, down from the August forecast of $96.30 a barrel.
Despite the cuts to the forecasts, 22 of the 32 analysts still expected Brent futures to price at $100 a barrel or above next year -- with commodities heavyweight Goldman Sachs still sticking to its $130 forecast -- highlighting a reticence towards sharp downgrades even in a pervasively bearish atmosphere.
September marks the third consecutive month of Brent forecast downgrades by analysts and follows a correction in Brent prices last week as heightened fears of a recession sparked a widespread market rout.
Brent futures fell to six-week lows of $103.97 a barrel by the market close on Friday, having started the week at around $111 a barrel.
"We continue to believe that the underlying fundamentals of global oil demand have been eroded in the short term by the deterioration in economic performance and the potential for slower economic growth to persist into 2012," Adam Sieminski from Deutsche Bank said in a note.
The OECD warned at the start of September that the outlook for the global economy has worsened over the past three months.