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RTRS: NICKEL-Major market developments in September
 
LONDON Oct 17 (Reuters) - Nickel prices recorded heavy losses in September, but have since steadied helped by optimism that the euro zone's debt crisis will be dealt with successfully, but further weakness could prompt higher cost producers to act.

"I expect nickel to fall below $18,000 again and if prices stay there for any length of time then it would get some support from NPI production being cut," said Will Adams of Fastmarkets.

Many analysts expect high cost Chinese nickel in pig iron (NPI) producers to respond quickly to further price falls. Their average costs are put at $17,000-18,000 a tonne.

The London Metal Exchange (LME) three-months nickel price was last indicated at $18,900 a tonne. Last month, nickel fell to $16,800 a tonne, its lowest since December 2009.

The demand picture from the key stainless steel industry is not particularly supportive at the moment, but that could change around the end of the year.

"Demand is not that great, but inventories of stainless are not that high. As the New Year comes in we see restocking helping to boost stainless steel production," said Kaye Ayub, an analyst at steel consultancy MEPS International.

Stainless steel accounts for around two-thirds of nickel demand.

Further ahead rising supply from new projects is likely to outweigh demand, but Barclays Capital said prices have fallen far enough for now.

"We are neutral on nickel fundamentals on the view that recent price weakness is overdone, but that recovering production will ease market tightness progressively into 2012," it said in its latest weekly report.

Below are some of the more significant recent developments in production, stocks and prices that may continue to influence the direction of the market in the remainder of 2011.

PRODUCTION

Sept 29 - African Eagle Resources Plc is looking to raise about $600 million to develop its Dutwa project in Tanzania into a world class, low cost producer of nickel. The AIM-listed exploration company will start talking to bankers from the middle of next year and is seeking to raise the whole amount in one go.

Sept 29 - Western Areas , Australia's third-largest nickel miner, said it expects to conclude a new round of tenders to sell its nickel concentrate by the end of November. With the company's current 25,000 tonne supply contract to sell nickel concentrate to China's largest nickel smelter, Jinchuan, due to expire in February next year, Western Areas has significant uncommitted nickel supplies available to smelters in 2012, a company official said. Western Areas' first ore from its new underground mine development at Spotted Quoll is expected in December with a seven- to eight-year mine life based on current ore reserves.

Sept 23 - Low grade ore, high start-up costs and an uncertain macroeconomic climate make for a hard sell for Nickel Mountain Resources, which is looking for around $10 million to finance a pre-feasibility study for its Ronnbacken nickel deposit in Sweden. But the company is confident the demand exists for such a project, especially one using proven technology.

Sept 21 - The Philippines' MacroAsia Corp can start production as early as next year at its Infanta nickel mine, part of a 1,113-hectare prospect it plans to develop with China's Jinchuan Group, once all required permits are in, a senior company official said.

Sept 14 - China produced 193,202 tonnes of refined nickel in the first eight months of the year, up 52.6 percent from the same period last year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

Sept 7 - The Philippines' MacroAsia Corp said its joint investments with China's Jinchuan Group Ltd in a nickel mine in southwestern Palawan province may reach $1 billion.

Sept 7 - China's nickel ore imports are expected to slow in the second half compared with the first, an executive at the country's top nickel producer Jinchuan Group told Reuters. A company official also said China's nickel output is expected to be 440,000 tonnes this year.

Sept 5 - China's Jinchuan Group Ltd is to invest in two laterite mines in the Philippines after signing agreements with two companies last week. Jinchuan, China's top nickel producer and third-biggest copper producer, will join Zamora Group and Macroasia Group to develop two laterite mines in Palawan Island in the Philippines, a statement on the Chinese firm's website said.

Jinchuan is building annual capacity of 600,000 tonnes of copper, 100,000 tonnes of ferro-nickel and 20,000-30,000 tonnes of nickel in the southeast Chinese region of Guangxi. In 2011, Jinchuan plans to increase production to 130,000-140,000 tonnes of nickel and 500,000 tonnes of copper, compared to about 130,000 tonnes of nickel and less than 400,000 tonnes of copper in 2010.

STOCKS

LME nickel stocks resumed this year's general downtrend in September. Having breached the psychological 100,000 tonne level early on, they ended the month at 97,704 tonnes from 104,502 tonnes at the end of August.

Inventories have continued to fall in October and on Monday were at 90,924 tonnes, their lowest since early 2009.

At the end of last month LME nickel stocks amounted to almost 23 days of demand.

PRICES

Nickel prices ended September at $17,600 a tonne, down sharply from $22,200 the previous month as industrial metals were punished by worries that the euro zone debt crisis would hit demand.

On Sept. 23, three-months nickel prices fell to $16,800 a tonne, their lowest since December 2009.

The market has recouped some of those losses, but prices have since held to a narrow range, mainly between $18,000 and $19,000 a tonne, as demand worries persist.

(3000 Xtra users can access Reuters Metal Production Database (MPD) by clicking on:)
Source