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RTRS:FOREX-Euro recovers vs dollar but remains vulnerable
 
* Euro recovers on short covering after hitting two-month
low
* But traders cite clear bias to sell the euro
* Agencies warn of possible euro zone ratings downgrades
* No Fed policy action expected at meeting

By Jessica Mortimer
LONDON, Dec 13 (Reuters) - The euro recovered from a
two-month low versus the dollar on Tuesday but was seen as
vulnerable to further selling as the threat of euro zone
sovereign downgrades undermined sentiment towards the currency.
Short covering helped the euro rebound modestly after it
failed to break below a reported barrier at $1.3150, but traders
said there remained a clear bias among investors to sell the
single currency on any bounce.
The euro was up 0.3 percent at $1.3226, having hit a
low of $1.3160, leaving the October low of $1.3145 within range.
Investors took some encouragement from lower yields at an
auction of Spanish short-term debt, while a survey showed German
investor sentiment rose unexpectedly in December although
worries about the severity of the region's debt crisis remained.

Comments from France's candidate for a seat on the European
Central Bank's Executive Board, Benoit Coeure, who said the ECB
may need to step up its bond-buying to help reduce borrowing
costs for some countries, were also seen as positive.

"The Spanish auction was reassuring but there is still an
Italian auction to come this week and the market will be
inclined to push the euro lower from here," said Audrey
Childe-Freeman, EMEA head of currency strategy at JP Morgan
Private Bank.
"The only thing that would be enough to restore confidence
for now would be aggressive bond buying by the ECB," she said,
but added that repatriation flows could support the euro heading
into year-end.
Moody's said on Monday it intends to review the credit
ratings of all 27 European Union states in the first quarter of
2012, while another ratings agency, Fitch, said pressure on
their ratings had risen after last week's EU summit yielded no
"comprehensive" crisis solution.
Standard & Poor's, the other major rating agency, already
has 15 euro zone states on watch for a possible downgrade.
"The last blow for the euro was the announcement from the
ratings agencies last night," said Niels Christensen, currency
strategist at Nordea in Copenhagen.
"The technical configuration is turning against the euro. If
it breaks below the early October lows then very quickly $1.30
would be in the frame, plus we have thin markets. It all adds up
to a clear bias to the downside for euro/dollar."
Net euro short positions totalled 95,814 contracts in the
week through December 6, according to Commodity Futures Trading
Commission data, and market participants said shorts are likely
to have increased in the wake of the summit.
Although the data suggested a strongly negative sentiment
towards the euro, the single currency could gain short-term
support as investors take profits on or cover those positions.


FALLING RISK APPETITE
Pressure on the euro and heightened risk aversion increased
the dollar's safe-haven appeal, lifting the dollar index
to 79.651, its highest this month, before it dropped back to
79.333.
Later on Tuesday, the Federal Reserve will hold its final
policy meeting of the year but it is not expected to take any
action other than some finishing touches on its communication
strategy. Many analysts expect the Fed to wait until a two-day
meeting on Jan. 24-25 before launching any new initiatives.

U.S. retail sales data will also be released ahead of the
Fed meeting.
The risk-sensitive Australian dollar was up 0.6
percent at $1.0130, having earlier shed more than 1 cent to a
two-week low of $1.0030.
Market liquidity was thin ahead of year-end holidays, which
may hurt demand in sales of Italian and Spanish bonds on
Wednesday and Thursday. Weak results would add to pressure on
the euro.
Source