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WSJ:Australian Dollar Down Late, Pushes Below US$1.0200
 

Rates At 0500 GMT
Latest Change
AUD/USD 1.0172 -0.59%
AUD/JPY 78.26 -0.87%
6.25% Apr, 2015 3.1701% -0.0697
5.50% Apr, 2023 3.9585% -0.0656
10-Yr Spread To U.S. +184 bps +5 bps
SFE Mar 3-Year Futures 96.89 +0.05
SFE Mar 10-Year Futures 96.20 +0.055

SYDNEY (Dow Jones)--The Australian dollar slid Monday as concerns about the euro-zone debt crisis continue to damp sentiment about the risk-sensitive currency.

Among a series of reports hitting sentiment, the International Monetary Fund has growing doubts about Greece's long-term ability to cut its debts, according to a report in German news magazine Der Spiegel on Sunday. Along with hitting the local currency, the reports lifted Australian bonds on both ends of the curve.

Of more concern for the Australian dollar directly, a report from the government's statistics bureau showed retail sales in the country were weaker than expected in November, rising only very slightly to a seasonally adjusted A$20.933 billion from A$20.927 billion in October. A poll of 15 economists by Dow Jones Newswires had tipped a 0.3% rise from October.

The "data suggests that consumers remain hesitant to spend up given weaker prospects for global growth and supports the view that the (Reserve Bank of Australia) will cut rates again," said Janu Chua, an economist with St. George.

Notably, the central bank has cut rates in each of the last two months, with further cuts likely to hit the currency given Australia's comparative yield advantage with the RBA's cash rate still sitting at 4.25%.

At 0500 GMT, the Australian dollar was trading at US$1.0172, down from US$1.0232 late Friday, but up from a session low of US$1.0148. Against the Japanese yen, the Australian currency changed hands at Y78.26, down from Y78.95.

Helping the currency keep from falling further, data showed new home sales in Australia surged 6.8% in November from October, with detached houses gaining strongly. After weak reports on housing had dominated for much of 2011, the report was a slight reprieve for those concerned about the local property market.

Even so, Annette Beacher, head of Asia-Pacific research for TD Securities, forecast more weakness in the coming months, which will force three more rate cuts from the RBA.

The prediction for more cuts is "squarely focused on offsetting the severe global headwinds coming from Europe, and indirectly, China," said Beacher.

-By Geoffrey Rogow, Dow Jones Newswires; +61-2-8272-4686; geoffrey.rogow@dowjones.com

(Data provided by Reuters)
Source