RTRS:FOREX-Euro claws back from 16-month low versus dollar
* Euro slides to $1.2666 in thin Asian trade
* Weekend euro zone news hits sentiment; mkt heavily short
* Merkel, Sarkozy meet; focus on Spain, Italy debt sales
By Neal Armstrong
LONDON, Jan 9 (Reuters) - The euro crawled back from a
fresh 16-month low to the dollar on Monday as traders trimmed
short positions, but further declines were anticipated as
worries over sovereign funding kept investors bearish on the
currency.
Markets were awaiting a meeting between German Chancellor
Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy where they
will discuss ways to boost growth and final details of a deal to
increase fiscal coordination in the euro zone.
Sentiment took a further hit over the weekend when German
magazine Der Spiegel reported the International Monetary Fund
was losing confidence in Greece's ability to clean up its public
finances.
Also, an adviser to German Finance Minister Wolfgang
Schaeuble told a Greek newspaper a 50 percent writedown on Greek
debt holdings - a key part of the country's debt swap deal -
would not be enough to put it huge debt on a viable footing.
"Newsflow from the euro zone is not helping, particularly
regarding Greece, and markets are also on the defensive ahead of
key event risks this week so there's not too much reason to be
overweight the euro," said Geoffrey Yu, currency strategist at
UBS.
"These are testing times for the currency and the scale of
the recent decline seems to have caught some people by
surprise."
Focus this week will fall on Spain and Italy in the run-up
to their first bond auctions of the year, with little sign that
investors have started 2012 with improved appetite for the euro
zone's riskier assets.
The euro hit its lowest level since September 2010 of
$1.2666 on trading platform EBS in thin Asian trade, with Tokyo
markets shut for a public holiday. Against the yen, the euro hit
an 11-year low of 97.28 yen.
The single currency later recovered to $1.2766 as traders
covered some short positions, trading up around 0.3 percent for
the day. Traders reported offers in the $1.2780 zone.
Key support for the euro lies near $1.2600, roughly the 76.4
percent retracement of its June 2010 to May 2011 rally and also
the late August 2010 low around $1.2690.
U.S. jobs data last Friday highlighted the diverging growth
outlook between the United States and Europe, suggesting further
weakness in the euro/dollar pair.
"We're seeing a correlation break in that the euro has
started to sell off relative to the dollar when there is decent
data," said Yu.
Some market players said stop-loss offers exacerbated the
euro's drop on Monday but the fall was meeting with bouts of
short covering.
"Could the euro rebound this week? It had an enormous move
on Friday, so we wouldn't be surprised especially since the
market is so short euro already," said Kathleen Brooks, research
director at FOREX.com.
Currency speculators boosted short positions in the currency
to record levels in the week ended Jan. 3, data from the
Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed on
Friday.
EURO CROSSES
After finishing 2011 some 13 percent below its year high
near $1.4940, the euro has started 2012 on a weak note, having
shed roughly 1.9 percent so far in January.
The drop so far this year has been driven by selling in euro
crosses such as euro/Aussie and euro/yen, said Rob Ryan, FX
strategist for BNP Paribas in Singapore.
"Positioning is beginning to get a little stretched at this
stage," Ryan said. "I think we're risking some pretty fast
reversals of these moves."
Still, the single currency is unlikely to see a sustained
rebound unless the euro zone's economic outlook improves, Ryan
said, adding that the euro could fall to $1.25 in coming months.
The dollar held steady against the yen at 76.89 yen,
staying above a two-month low of 76.30 yen hit last week. The
dollar held firm against a basket of currencies to trade at a
16-month high of 81.47 in Asia before easing back to 81.063.