SF: U.S Economy Preferred by Investors in Global Poll on Markets
(Updates with quote from Starwood's Avril in 18th paragraph. See {POLL } for more on the Bloomberg poll and {Davos } for more on the World Economic Forum.)
Jan. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Investors are turning increasingly bullish on U.S. markets as they declare its economy in better health than major rivals from Europe to Asia, according to the Bloomberg Global Poll.
As the World Economic Forum's annual meeting began today in Switzerland and Federal Reserve policy makers convene in Washington, 48 percent of respondents predict the U.S. will be among the world's best-performing markets this year, according to the quarterly poll of 1,209 investors, analysts and traders who are Bloomberg subscribers that was conducted Jan. 23-24. That's the highest rating for the U.S. since the poll began in 2009 and it's more than twice that of Brazil and China, the second-ranked markets.
The U.S. economy is improving in the eyes of half those surveyed, compared with 18 percent who are positive about world growth. Investors have yet to embrace tentative gains in fighting Europe's debt crisis, with 48 percent identifying the euro area as one of the worst to invest in and 67 percent predicting that any perceived improvement is temporary and the crisis will deepen again.
"The difference between the U.S. and Europe is almost night and day," said Paul Winghart, a poll respondent and senior fixed-income strategist at RBC Wealth Management in Minneapolis, which oversees about $227 billion. "We have been recommending that investors stay within the U.S."
Americans Optimistic
Americans were the most optimistic about their own markets, with 62 percent citing it one of the best investment opportunities, up from 53 percent in December. Twenty-five percent of euro-area residents also picked the U.S., compared with 40 percent who chose the EU. Almost half of U.S. respondents said their economy was improving; 17 percent of euro-area residents said the same of their own.
The U.S. economy will grow 1.8 percent this year, while the euro-region will shrink 0.5 percent, the International Monetary Fund said yesterday in an update of its World Economic Outlook.
That two-speed sentiment is reflected in what investors are betting on in the next six months. Fifty-nine percent say they expect the Standard & Poor's 500 Index to be higher by the middle of the year and 32 percent say they intend to buy more dollars. By contrast, 43 percent predict the Euro Stoxx 50 Index will be lower over the same timeframe and 9 percent plan to increase their exposure to the euro.
Favoring Stocks
Investors increasingly favor stocks, with 46 percent saying they will offer the highest return this year -- the most since the poll began. Thirteen percent identify commodities as the most attractive asset, with 12 percent choosing gold and 11 percent preferring currencies.
Thirty-nine percent of respondents say bonds will offer the worst return and 9 percent say they are increasing holdings of U.S. Treasuries, with 46 percent predicting the yield on the 10- year note will rise by mid-year. Just under half say they will cut their exposure to European sovereign debt.
Pluralities say the prices of gold and oil will both be higher in the next six months as will the MSCI Asian Pacific Index and the FTSE 100.
As investors become more confident, their "money will enter the stock market," said Todd Cowle, a poll participant and managing partner at Ultimate Tier Advisors LLC in Plano, Texas, which manages about $100 million. "We're setting ourselves up for a rally" in the U.S. equity market, he said.
U.S. Outlook
Fifty percent of the respondents said the economy in the U.S. is improving, compared with 10 percent who said so in a poll in September. This confidence provides Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and his colleagues with a reason to hold off on another round of stimulus when they conclude their two-day meeting today.