BLBG:Wheat Shipments From Australia Seen at Record as Harvest Gains on Weather
Wheat exports from Australia, set to be the world’s second-biggest shipper, may climb to a record this year as the harvest advances to an all-time high after favorable weather, according to the government forecaster.
Shipments (AUITWHET) may total 22.3 million metric tons in the year to Sept. 30, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural Resource Economics and Sciences said today. That’s 3.2 percent more than forecast on Dec. 6 and 20 percent higher than a year earlier. Production may total 29.5 million tons, 4.3 percent more than previously estimated and beat last year’s record crop of 27.9 million tons, the bureau said in a report.
Increased shipments from Australia will add to record worldwide supply and may help to extend the grain’s 29 percent slump in the past year, easing global food costs. Wheat may underperform corn and soybeans, Morgan Stanley said in a report yesterday, citing “flush supplies” from Australia and Europe.
“Growing conditions for winter crops were generally favorable across Australia,” the bureau said in the report. “Western Australia experienced a recovery from very dry conditions last season and the eastern states experienced a second successive season of favorable conditions.”
Wheat for May delivery fell 0.2 percent to $6.45 per bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade at 9:13 a.m. in Singapore. The price fell 4.7 percent last week as forecasts for rising world output and stockpiles countered concern that dry weather and freezing temperatures in Eastern Europe may have damaged crops.
Largest Shipper
Global stockpiles before the 2012 Northern Hemisphere harvest will climb to a record 213.1 million tons, 6.2 percent more than last year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Feb. 9, predicting that the U.S. would be the largest exporter in 2011-2012, followed by Australia and Russia. The Australian export estimate is 1.3 million tons higher than the USDA figure.
Output in Western Australia, set to be the biggest wheat producer, may total 11.7 million tons, more than double last year’s crop and 16 percent higher than the December estimate, according to the bureau. The total winter-crop harvest in Australia, including wheat, barley, canola and other grains, may be a record 45.4 million tons, the bureau said.
Cotton output from the world’s third-largest shipper may total 1.08 million tons, 5.6 percent lower than the December forecast, according the report. That would still be a record.
Production may be 8.2 percent less than an earlier forecast after floods damaged crops in New South Wales and Queensland, according to producers’ group Cotton Australia. Rabobank International cut its output forecast 3.4 percent on Feb. 10.
“There is likely to be downgrading in crop quality and crop losses,” Abares Executive Director Paul Morris said in a separate statement. “Until the flood water recedes, the full extent of crop damage will be unclear.”
To contact the reporter for this story: Phoebe Sedgman in Melbourne at psedgman2@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: James Poole at jpoole4@bloomberg.net
