BLBG:Dollar Climbs to Six-Month High Above 80 Yen as U.S. Economy to Strengthen
The dollar rose to a six-month high of 80.08 yen on speculation signs of growth in the U.S. economy will reduce the case for more quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve.
The euro was within 0.1 percent of a three-month high versus Japan’s currency after the Greek government won a second bailout and sent debt-swap and austerity measures to parliament for approval. The U.S. currency gained for a fifth day versus the yen before data economists forecast will show the housing market is stabilizing. The Norwegian krone climbed as crude oil traded near a nine-month high.
“The stronger the U.S. economy, the stronger the sense that the interest-rate story will turn around and some of the strength in the yen relative to the U.S. dollar starts to reverse course,” said Gavin Stacey, a strategist at Barclays Capital in Sydney. “The risk-on tone is seeing some of the yen strength dissipate.”
The dollar rose 0.4 percent to 80.04 yen as of 6:31 a.m. in London, after earlier touching 80.08, the strongest since Aug. 4. The greenback is poised for its longest series of daily advances since April. The euro strengthened 0.4 percent to 105.97 yen from yesterday, when it reached 106.01, the highest since Nov. 14. The 17-nation currency was bought $1.3238 $1.3234.
Sales (ETSLTOTL) of previously owned homes in the U.S. probably rose for a fourth month in January, climbing 1.1 percent to a 4.66 million annual rate, the highest level since May 2010, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before the National Association of Realtors releases its data today.
Greek Bailout
Euro-area finance ministers awarded 130 billion euros ($172 billion) in aid to Greece and reached an accord for greater debt relief from investor representatives in an exchange offer to tide the nation past a bond redemption next month.
Greece’s government agreed to fiscal measures, a voluntary debt swap known as private-sector involvement, and collective action clauses for bonds. Legislation needed to carry out those measures was submitted to lawmakers and posted on the Greek parliament’s website.
“We should have a bit of positive sentiment for the euro over the rest of this week as the market still seems a little short,” said Matthew Brady, executive director for foreign exchange at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Sydney. “We will at some stage this week test $1.34 on the euro just to flush out some of the short positioning.” A short position is a bet an asset will decline in value.
Euro Shorts
Futures traders increased wagers that the euro will decline against the dollar, figures from the Washington-based Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed last week. The difference in the number of wagers by hedge funds and other large speculators on a decline in the euro compared with those on a gain -- so- called net shorts -- was 148,641 on Feb. 14, compared with net shorts of 140,593 a week earlier.
The euro has climbed 0.8 percent in the past week, the second-biggest advance among 10 developed nation peers tracked by Bloomberg Correlation Weighted Indexes. The dollar has weakened 0.7 percent and the yen has dropped 2.9 percent over the same period.
The implied volatility of three-month options for Group of Seven currencies fell as low as 9.97 percent yesterday, the least since Feb. 14, according to the JPMorgan G7 Volatility Index. A decrease makes investments in currencies with higher benchmark rates more attractive because it shows the risk is less that market moves will erase profits on such trades.
Japanese Easing
The Bank of Japan on Feb. 14 unexpectedly expanded its asset-purchase program to 30 trillion yen ($375 billion) from 20 trillion, with 19 trillion yen set aside for government bonds. The central bank also said it will target 1 percent inflation “for the time being.” The nation’s consumer prices fell at a 0.2 percent annual rate in December, government data show.
BOJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa today told Japanese lawmakers that policy makers set a price target in order to show the central bank’s resolve and that they will continue to make efforts to end deflation.
“Japan has come out and done their own quantitative easing,” said Barclays Capital’s Stacey. “The surprise QE announcement from the central bank in Japan is weighing on recent yen weakness.”
Nomura Holdings Inc., Japan’s biggest brokerage, raised its first quarter forecast for the dollar to 79 yen, according to a research note published yesterday. Its previous projection was for the currency to be at 75 yen.
Norwegian Krone
The currency of Norway, the world’s seventh-largest oil exporter, rose 0.4 percent to 5.6760 per U.S. dollar. Oil for April delivery was at $106.31, up 6 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices earlier dropped as much as 54 cents. Front-month futures advanced 2.5 percent yesterday to settle at the highest level since May 4.
Demand for the Australian and New Zealand dollars was limited as a survey of purchasing managers indicated China’s manufacturing industry may shrink for a fourth month.
HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics said a preliminary reading of its purchasing managers index was 49.7 in February, below the 50 level that separates contraction from expansion. January and February economic data are distorted by a week-long Chinese holiday.
“China, in terms of risk appetite, will be less of a positive heading into the end of the quarter,” said Callum Henderson, global head of foreign-exchange research in Singapore at Standard Chartered Plc. “The bad news for the Aussie is that this is not just an issue of seasonals, but it’s also an issue of China continuing to slow down.”
The Australian dollar was little changed at $1.0667 from $1.0663 yesterday, when it fell 0.9 percent. New Zealand’s dollar bought 83.41 U.S. cents from 83.40 yesterday, when it declined 0.7 percent.
To contact the reporters on this story: Mariko Ishikawa in Tokyo at mishikawa9@bloomberg.net; Candice Zachariahs in Sydney at czachariahs2@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Rocky Swift at rswift5@bloomberg.net