U.S. dollar ETF fell below the lows of the previous 8 trading days.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF rose above its highs of the previous 9 months.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF rose above the highs of the previous 3 months and remains in bullish position above its 50-day and 200-day SMAs.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF rose above its 200-day SMA and rose above its highs of the previous 5 months.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN fell away from its 200-day SMA on 2/23/12 following a failed rally attempt.
The S&P 500 Composite rose above the previous day's high on 2/23/12 in continuing dull trading.
Popular Price Momentum indicators, such as RSI and MACD, failed to confirm higher price highs over the past 9 trading days, thereby warning of bearish divergence.
SPX remains within a potential Bearish Rising Wedge chart pattern, which has forming since December. In addition, that pattern is contained within a larger potential Bearish Rising Wedge chart pattern beginning at the October low. Break downs below the lower boundary lines would offer technical warning of a possible fast return to the lows.
NYSE volume continues to languish at a low levels, suggesting weak demand for stocks.
My Sensitive Short-Term Price Momentum Oscillator based on SPX turned upward but shows a bearish divergence compared to Price. In recent weeks, the slowness of the grind higher indicated that the stock market already had lost most of its bullish momentum, and that still applies.
Expect resistance near the 2011 highs, around SPX 1370.58 set on 5/2/2011, allowing plus or minus a few percentage points for Gann's "lost motion".
Up big from recent lows, and with very little room above before resistance, Potential Reward relative to potential Risk appears unattractive.
The Dow-Jones Industrial and Transportation Averages diverged after 2/3/12, as Industrials struggled higher but Transports trended down.
Recent sentiment data, detailed below, indicates alarming degrees of optimism and bullish complacency. When the majority of investors has been bullish for some time, we can assume that they are already fully invested in the market. Once everyone who is going to buy has already bought, stocks are vulnerable to a downside shakeout. The pendulum of emotion tends to swing too far in one direction, but market mood always reverts to the mean.
