RTRS:METALS-Copper gets lift from softer dollar, caution stays
* Euro gains ahead of ECB liquidity injection
* Slow China demand limits copper's gains, PMI data eyed
* Coming Up: U.S. consumer confidence; 1500 GMT
(Recasts lead, updates prices)
By Manolo Serapio Jr
SINGAPORE, Feb 28 (Reuters) - London copper regained
its footing on Tuesday, along with the euro, ahead of a second
liquidity infusion by the European Central Bank to ease debt
strains, although slow demand from top consumer China kept gains
in check.
The euro rose against the dollar ahead of an estimated half
a trillion euros in cheap three-year loans the ECB is expected
to offer on Wednesday.
Copper has risen more than 12 percent this year, but has
found it hard to stretch gains, given slack Chinese demand since
the Lunar New Year break in January.
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange rose
0.3 percent to $8,557 a tonne by 0715 GMT, off an earlier low
of$8,490. Copper is still more than 2 percent off a five-month
high of $8,765 reached on Feb. 9.
The most-traded May copper contract on the Shanghai Futures
Exchange climbed 1.1 percent to 61,060 yuan ($9,700) a
tonne.
"I believe Chinese demand is recovering but at a very, very
slow pace," said Judy Zhu, commodity analyst at Standard
Chartered in Shanghai, citing a modest drop in Shanghai copper
stockpiles last week.
"Chinese demand is going to improve in the weeks ahead on
seasonal factors, but the recovery should be slow because some
copper consumers, like home appliance makers, are dealing with
huge stockpiles due to weak order books from both domestic and
overseas markets."
Copper inventories in Shanghai warehouses dropped by around
1,000 tonnes to 216,086 tonnes CU-STX-SGH last week from a
near 10-year high above 217,000 tonnes the previous week.
SOFT PHYSICAL PREMIUMS
It was the first drop in Shanghai copper stockpiles since
early December, but Macquarie Commodities Research said it might
be premature to read much into the figure.
"Our sources on the ground in China still point to soft
physical premiums this week so we would caution extrapolating an
overly bullish conclusion from this single draw," it said in a
note.
With China consuming around 40 percent of global copper,
market players say unless the country's demand picks up
strongly, copper's rally this year could soon lose steam.
As such, China's official purchasing managers' index, due
out on Thursday, will be keenly watched. A Reuters poll suggests
the number, which measures activities in China's manufacturing
sector, edged up to 50.7 in February from 50.5 in January.
HSBC flash PMI -- a sister survey and also the earliest
indicator of China's industrial activity -- hit a fourth-month
high of 49.7 in February, but new export orders shrank the most
in eight months as global demand weakens.
Continuously positive economic data out of the United States
is helping shield copper from a sell-off.
There was further evidence of a recovering U.S. housing
market on Tuesday, with data showing that contracts to purchase
previously owned U.S. homes neared a two-year high in January.
That data, along with oil's fall, helped the S&P 500 close at
its highest since June 2008.
"With many industrial metals still being undervalued...we
think the sector is likely to see further gains as long as
economic data continues to signal stabilization of growth,"
investment bank Credit Suisse said in a note.
With increased liquidity across the world as central banks
ease credit conditions to boost growth, StanChart's Zhu said
this should lift copper to an average of $9,000 a tonne during
the third quarter.
Base metals prices at 0715 GMT
Metal Last Change Pct Move YTD pct chg
LME Cu 8557.00 21.00 +0.25 12.59
SHFE CU FUT MAY2 61060 660 +1.09 10.30
HG COPPER MAR2 389.00 0.95 +0.24 13.21
LME Alum 2329.00 -2.00 -0.09 15.30
SHFE AL FUT MAY2 16270 15 +0.09 2.68
LME Zinc 2105.00 5.00 +0.24 14.09
SHFE ZN FUT MAY2 16125 175 +1.10 8.99
LME Nickel 20260.00 85.00 +0.42 8.28
LME Lead 2247.00 0.00 +0.00 10.42
SHFE PB FUT 16310.00 180.00 +1.12 6.71
LME Tin 24050.00 345.00 +1.46 25.26
LME/Shanghai arb^ 2014
Shanghai and COMEX contracts show most active months
^ LME 3-month copper in yuan, including 17 pct VAT, minus SHFE third month
($1=6.3019 Chinese yuan)
(Reporting by Manolo Serapio Jr.; Editing by Clarence
Fernandez)