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RTRS:Euro steadies, seen vulnerable on Greece uncertainty
 
(Reuters) - The euro hovered close to a three-week low against the dollar on Wednesday and was seen vulnerable to further losses on uncertainty about whether Greece would win sufficient support for a debt restructuring.
A clutch of Greek pension funds and some foreign investors are holding back on a bond swap deal which would enable Greece to meet a debt repayment on March 20, sparking concerns about a chaotic default if participation is low.

Greek private creditors have until late Thursday to say whether they will take part. Further hints of hesitance could see the euro retest Tuesday's three-week low at $1.3103.

"The Greek PSI (bond swap) deal might well go through, the key will be the participation rate. But beyond that the outlook for the euro is still weak," said Melinda Burgess, currency strategist at RBS.

"We think there is still further weakness to come for the euro and forecast it to fall to $1.26 by the end of March."

Traders said the euro was supported by Middle East and corporate buying, as well as talk of reported Asian sovereign bids around $1.3100, where there was solid chart support.

The euro was up 0.1 percent at $1.3132, staying above support including the cloud top on daily Ichimoku charts at $1.3097 and the 76.4 percent retracement of its rally in mid- to late February at $1.3095.

RBS's Burgess said there was also strong support above the psychological $1.30 level that could slow its decline. Once below there, however, it could move lower "fairly rapidly."

The higher-yielding and growth-linked Australian dollar fell to a six-week low against the U.S. dollar after disappointing Australian economic growth data, shedding some three U.S. cents from a seven-month high set last week.

It was also vulnerable as Greece concerns prompted market players to cut exposure to risky assets.

The Aussie was last down 0.1 percent at $1.0555, off an earlier low of $1.0508. Analysts said a break below that level could see it extend losses towards $1.0350.

GROWTH WORRIES

Apart from Greece, Chinese inflation and U.S. jobs data on Friday and a European Central Bank policy meeting on Thursday will set the tone for markets, traders said.

"I think we are at a watershed now. If the Greek debt swap goes well and the U.S. job data points to continued recovery, then the market could return to the risk-on mood," said a trader at a Japanese bank. "But if Greece cannot get the deal, then that would be a game changer," he added.

China this week cut its growth target to the lowest level in eight years and Brazil announced a disappointing economic performance for 2011, raising doubts that emerging market powerhouses can offset weak growth in the advanced economies.

Investors unwound some recent bearish positions placed on the Japanese currency, helping the yen firm across the board.

The dollar was down 0.2 percent at 80.69 yen, holding above support at 80.50 yen, the 23.6 percent retracement of its February rally.

"Since the yen had been sold sharply recently, there is room for more adjustment. But I do think there's pretty strong dollar demand at around 80 yen," said Sumino Kamei, senior currency analyst at the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ in Tokyo.

Traders said a break above 81.60 yen was needed to reset the upwards momentum for dollar/yen and put 82.20 back in focus.

The euro also pulled further away from a recent high of 109.95 yen to trade down 0.1 percent at 105.93 yen.

The dollar, which was supported along with the yen as investors sought safer assets, was up 0.15 percent at 79.751, not far from a three-week high of 79.867 hit on Tuesday where it faced technical resistance, analysts said.

(Additional reporting by Hideyuki Sano in Tokyo, editing by Nigel Stephenson)
Source