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RTRS:Euro falls as investors look past Greece, eye Portugal
 
(Reuters) - The euro fell on Friday after a relatively successful Greek bond swap that should avert a disorderly default was largely priced in, with investors reluctant to hold the currency as worries over other euro zone debt markets persisted.

Greece won a strong 85.8 percent acceptance from its private creditors for a bond swap deal which will ease its massive public debt and clear the way for a new international bailout.

The euro fell against the dollar after the announcement and extended losses into early European trade to $1.32122, down around 0.4 percent for the day. Traders reported demand around $1.3200 and $1.3170/80 with offers at $1.3290/1.3300.

"The market was supported by gathering momentum with respect to the Greek debt swap but it appears to have been a sell on the news event," said Jane Foley, senior fx strategist at Rabobank.

"The outlook for the euro is far from rosy with yields on debt markets showing pressure in Portugal and to a lesser extent Spain and this shows there is capacity for the debt crisis to throw the euro off course again," she added.

Portuguese government bond yields rose on Friday as the country looked to be the next weakest link in the euro zone's sovereign debt crisis.

In a statement following closure of the offer late on Thursday, the Greek finance ministry said 172 billion euros in total had been tendered for the deal, which will force investors to take losses of as much as 74 percent on their holdings.

It said it had informed its international partners that it intends to enforce the collective action clauses (CAC) on any holders of the outstanding 177 billion euros of bonds regulated under Greek law.

The use of the CAC is a step that could lead to the triggering of payouts on credit default swaps on Greece's debt. The International Swaps and Derivatives Association said it will meet on Friday at 1300 GMT to decide whether Greek credit default swaps will pay out.

"The base case assumes that this CDS event is well telegraphed and will not trigger stress in the market, although there may be some doubts as to whether those that wrote the protection can pay. We think uncertainty around the CDS event requires a small risk premium in the euro," said ING in a note.

In a sign of investors' relative ambivalence towards the euro/dollar pair, one-month implied option volatility, a measure of future price swings, traded around 9.50 percent, close to the year's lows.

The euro fell 0.4 percent against the yen compared to late U.S. trade on Thursday to 107.83 yen

The dollar dipped to 81.57 yen, retreating from a 9-1/2 month high of 81.899 yen hit earlier on trading platform EBS.

"Dollar/yen has hit the bottom and there are buyers across the board, betting on a long-term rise in the pair," said a trader for a Japanese bank in Tokyo.

"Unless U.S. jobs figures are very, very bad we will see this uptrend continue," he said.

U.S. jobs data due late on Friday will be closely watched, especially after the Wall Street Journal reported earlier in the week that Federal Reserve officials were considering sterilized quantitative easing to further help the economic recovery.

An outcome that bolsters such expectations could be the dollar's undoing. However, economists in a Reuters poll expect a robust 210,000 new jobs to have been created in February, following the previous month's above-expected 243,000.

Attention will also be on the unemployment rate which is forecast to remain at an elevated 8.3 percent.
Source