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WSJ:WORLD FOREX: Pause In US Yields Weigh On Dollar; Dudley Eyed
 
--Dollar under pressure against the yen

--Pullback in U.S. Treasury yields weigh on the buck and ahead of Dudley's speech

--Euro stuck in range, despite setting of Greek CDS recovery value


By Eva Szalay
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

LONDON (Dow Jones)--The dollar came under pressure against the Japanese yen Monday as yields on U.S. Treasurys paused for breath after softer-than-expected data late Friday, providing a key area of focus in an otherwise quiet market.

The dollar has cranked some 10% higher against the yen since the start of February, buoyed by a growing belief in a U.S. economic recovery that has caused a selloff in U.S. government bonds--a key driver for this exchange rate.

But after Friday's softer-than-expected data from the U.S., including inflation data and consumer confidence readings, the rise in yields paused as investors adopted caution and reeled in expectations for interest-rate rises by the Federal Reserve. Early Monday, 10-year U.S. Treasurys yielded around 2.27%, compared to 2.363% early Friday.

"Market expectations for the first Fed rate hike are running one year ahead of the Fed's own expectations, which reinforces our view that the dollar will increasingly struggle to extend its recent advance absent a significant shift in Bank of Japan policy ahead," Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi-UFJ said in a note to clients.

Likely adding to headwinds against the buck, the famously dovish New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley will make a speech about the economy at 1235 GMT today, which could set the tone for the week ahead for the dollar in the absence of major U.S. data releases. Investors will be curious to see whether Dudley calls for a third round of quantitative easing--known as QE3.

"Due to a lack of data markets might rely on his comments, and pigs might fly rather than Dudley calling off QE3," Commerzbank said in a research note.

The euro was unable to hold on to the chunky gains it had made Friday and while the data calendar lacked first-tier drivers, poor Italian industrial orders did nothing to help sentiment. Industrial orders dropped 7.4% in January compared to December, and 5.6% on the year.

"The combination of very accommodative European Central Bank but only very gradual retreat in the sovereign debt risk going forward should continue to keep the headwinds for the single currency in place," Citigroup said in a research note.

There was no reaction in currencies markets as the initial stages of the long-awaited auction of Greek credit default swaps suggested that holders of these contracts would receive 78.25 cents on the euro after the country's recent credit event--roughly in line with expectations.

Emerging markets currencies traded with a mixed tone and followed the euro in range-bound trading.

At 1144 GMT the euro was trading at $1.3164 compared to $1.3177 late Friday in New York, according to EBS via CQG. The dollar traded at Y83.12 compared to Y83.45, while the euro was at Y109.38 from Y109.96. The pound was at $1.5878 from $1.5858.

A summary of key levels for chart-watching technical strategists is below:


Forex spot: EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD USD/CHF

Spot 1133 GMT 1.3165 83.15 1.5870 0.9164
3 Day Trend Bullish Range Bullish Bearish
Weekly Trend Bearish Bullish Range Range
200 day ma 1.3467 78.95 1.5808 0.9071
3rd Resistance 1.3292 84.18 1.5991 0.9254
2nd Resistance 1.3220 83.94 1.5974 0.9230
1st Resistance 1.3199 83.57 1.5899 0.9179
Pivot* 1.3136 83.52 1.5802 0.9188
1st Support 1.3125 82.95 1.5820 0.9141
2nd Support 1.3101 82.85 1.5746 0.9072
3rd Support 1.3085 82.50 1.5635 0.9011


Forex spot: EUR/JPY

Spot 1133 GMT 109.47
3 Day Trend Bullish
Weekly Trend Range
200 day ma 106.33
3rd Resistance 111.57
2nd Resistance 110.46
1st Resistance 110.15
Pivot* 109.62
1st Support 109.00
2nd Support 108.59
3rd Support 107.90

-By Eva Szalay, Dow Jones Newswires, 44 20 7842 9305;

(eva.szalay@dowjones.com) @djfxtrader

(Dow Jones Technical Strategist Francis Bray contributed to this story.)
Source