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RTRS:FOREX-Yen advances against dollar into fiscal yr-end
 
* Japanese exporters sell major currencies vs yen
* Euro inches up but stays below previous day's 1-mth high
* Dollar subdued, U.S. durable goods orders in focus

By Anirban Nag
LONDON, March 28 (Reuters) - The yen rose against the dollar
on Wednesday, lifted by seasonal flows from Japanese exporters
buying at the end of their financial year, although gains could
be temporary given the Bank of Japan determination to keep
monetary policy ultra-loose.
The euro pared earlier losses against the Japanese yen to
trade flat on the day with many expecting the yen's
weaker tone to resume next week once the year-end flows are out
of the way.
The dollar was last down 0.2 percent at 83.00 yen
recovering from a session low of 82.61 in early European trade,
with traders citing offers to sell dollars at 83.30 yen.
"Over the two to three month horizon, we expect dollar/yen
to rise to 85 yen as the broad direction is for a higher
dollar," said Geoffrey Yu, currency strategist at UBS.
Analysts say with the government and the Bank of Japan
stepping up its campaign to stimulate growth, more monetary
policy easing could not be ruled out. They expect Japanese
authorities to step up efforts to weaken the yen and give
exports a boost.
Yen buying by Japanese exporters tends to peak at month-end,
and there is additional focus on potential flows as the
financial year for most Japanese companies closes on March 31.
Such seasonal factors helped spur yen-buying by Japanese
exporters on Wednesday, despite reports that some had already
hedged their foreign exchange exposure for the next few months.
Dealers said Wednesday was the deadline for currency
transactions to be carried out in time to settle for the fiscal
year-end.
Barring the latest bounce, the yen has been under pressure
since the Bank of Japan's surprise monetary easing in
mid-February, when it expanded its asset-buying scheme by 10
trillion yen and set an inflation goal of 1 percent.
At the same time U.S. Treasury yields have risen, leading to
wider spreads over their Japanese counterparts and enhancing the
greenback's appeal. The dollar has risen nearly 8 percent
against the yen so far this quarter and is on track for its best
quarterly performance since early-2009.
John Hardy, a currency strategist at Saxo Bank said bearish
yen positions against the dollar had been the main theme of the
quarter and investors had taken it too far, heading into the
Japanese fiscal year-end.
"If you look at US/Japan rate spreads, they are not
supportive of where dollar/yen is at the moment," he said.
Investors pay close attention to the spread between two-year
U.S. and Japanese government bond yields. That has narrowed
significantly from highs earlier in the month of around 28 basis
points to 21 basis points on Wednesday. .

U.S. DURABLE GOODS DATA EYED
Credit Agricole on Wednesday revised its dollar/yen and
euro/yen forecasts higher. Although it expects a pullback in the
dollar/yen in the near term given how quickly it has risen, it
expects the greenback to rise to 85 yen by June and 87 yen by
Sept 2012, up from previous forecasts of 81 and 83 yen
respectively.
It expects the euro to end June 2012 at 109 yen, compared
with its previous forecast of 104 yen and trade at 110 yen by
Sept-end, up from an earlier forecast of 105 yen.
The euro pared early losses to trade flat at 110.80 yen
, below a 4-1/2 month high of 111.43 yen hit last week
on trading platform EBS.
The common currency rose 0.2 percent against the dollar to
$1.3350, not far from a one-month high of $1.3386 hit on
Tuesday.
The dollar was steady against a basket of currencies
at 79.029 after slipping to a one-month low of 78.77 on Tuesday.
It fell to a fresh one-month low against the Swiss franc on
Wednesday of 0.90162 francs.
Dovish-sounding comments by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke this
week have knocked the dollar as expectations of another round of
U.S. monetary stimulus rise.
Bernanke said on Tuesday it was too soon to declare victory
in the U.S. economic recovery, warning against complacency in
policy-making as the outlook brightens.
U.S. durable goods data due later on Wednesday are expected
to show a 1.7 percent increase in February (ex-transport) after
a 3.7 percent fall in January.
"To the extent that Bernanke has raised the ante on U.S.
growth indicators, durable goods orders due for release this
afternoon will be the market's focus," said Societe Generale in
a note.
Source