Bloomberg reported that, after slumping more than any other industrial metal, analysts and traders said that the worst may be over for nickel as restrictions on shipments from Indonesia, the biggest producer, diminish a worldwide glut. Indonesia banned some ore exports from May 6th 2012 and imposed a 20% tax on the remainder to spur the development of its refining industry. The nation's output will drop for the first time in four years in 2013, slashing global supply growth to 0.2%, from 4.9% in 2012. Prices will average USD 20,000 a tonne in the fourth quarter, an increase of 23%. Mr David Wilson, an analyst at Citigroup Inc. in London and a former economist for OAO GMK Norilsk Nickel, the biggest producer of the metal, said that "The most bullish thing for nickel short term is the impact of the ban on exports. We estimate China has enough stockpiles for about two-to-three months of consumption. There is a double whammy impact there. There is less ore and it's going to be more expensive." Nickel extended its drop this week and was 13% lower for the year at USD 16,230 on the London Metal Exchange. The LMEX index of six industrial metals was down 2.7% and the Standard & Poor's GSCI gauge of 24 commodities fell 6.9%. The MSCI All Country World Index of equities declined 0.4% and Treasuries returned 1.8%. Morgan Stanley said in a March 2012 report that the glut will contract to 36,900 tonnes in 2013, equal to a week of demand, from 46,600 tonnes in 2012. Prices rallied 58% in 2009 as the surplus declined to 98,200 tonnes from 100,300 tonnes. The bank's analysts also expect record consumption every year until at least 2017. Output of stainless steel, accounting for 69% of nickel usage, will expand to an all time high in 2012.

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