* CPO seen at 2,800 ringgits on $95/barrel crude in Q4 * Palm oil prices seen lower in Q3 from current levels (Adds details, background) By Rajendra Jadhav MUMBAI, June 8 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil prices may fall around 17.5 percent to 2,450 ringgit per tonne in the last quarter of 2012 from current levels if Brent crude oil prices come down to $80 per barrel, a top analyst said on Friday. "The basic supply-demand data on petroleum imply that today's high prices are unjustified and are doing their job of boosting supply and slowing demand," James Fry, chairman of commodities consultancy LMC International, said in his presentation at a palm oil conference here. Vegetable oil prices benefit from higher crude levels as they can be used to make biofuels, which are seen as greener alternatives to petrol and diesel. By the midday break on Friday, benchmark August palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange inched down 0.2 percent to 2,968 ringgit ($933) per tonne. Brent crude prices fell just below $99 a barrel on Friday, down for a second day. The premium of crude palm oil over petroleum prices has dropped since mid-May as CPO prices have fallen faster than Brent crude, Fry said. "One reason (behind the drop in the premium) is that the market is looking ahead to the time when CPO output picks up for seasonal reasons while demand weakens because of the new recession." The London-based analyst forecast a price of 2,800 ringgits per tonne in the last quarter, if the benchmark crude oil price touches $95 per barrel. THIRD QUARTER OUTLOOK Fry predicted CPO prices would also be lower in the third quarter from current levels as more output comes onstream, even though demand should rise during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, when fasting in the day is followed by an elaborate feast at night. He expects the CPO price in the third quarter (July-September) to be 2,700 ringgits on average if the crude price is $80 per barrel while it would be 2,900 ringgits in the third quarter if the crude oil price hits $95 a barrel. Traders said the higher price projection for the third quarter in both scenarios took into account huge demand for the vegetable oil during Ramadan which starts in the third week of July. Strong orders ahead of Ramadan, which heralds the start of the festival season in Asia, could help negate the impact of the euro zone debt crisis on demand for the oil in the short-run. The head of the Malaysian Palm Oil Council, Lee Yeow Chor, was more aggressive in his price projections on Thursday, saying spot prices could reach 3,000 to 3,200 ringgits in the next three months on tighter supplies. Prices hit a trough of 2,925 ringgit on June 4, their lowest since Nov. 2, 2011. [$1=3.181 Malaysian ringgit] (Editing by Jo Winterbottom)

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