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BLBG:Oil Climbs A Third Day On Economic Outlook, Norway Strike
 
Oil gained for a third day in New York after reports signaled fuel demand is increasing amid an economic recovery in the U.S., the world’s biggest crude user.
Futures climbed as much as 0.6 percent after closing at the highest price in a week yesterday. U.S. home sales and durable- goods orders beat forecasts in May, while gasoline demand rose last week, separate reports showed. Brent crude advanced a fourth day in London as a strike by Norwegian energy workers over pensions halted 15 percent of the country’s oil output.
“We’ve had some good numbers out of the U.S. and I think that’s positive,” said Jonathan Barratt, the chief executive officer of Barratt’s Bulletin, a commodity-markets newsletter in Sydney. “The strike in Norway has provided a bounce to Brent. That’s a concern and will support the spread” between the European and New York contracts, he said.
Crude for August delivery increased as much as 49 cents to $80.70 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $80.55 at 1:23 p.m. Singapore time. The contract yesterday gained 1.1 percent to $80.21, the highest close since June 20. Prices are down 22 percent this quarter, the biggest drop since the final three months of 2008.
Brent oil for August settlement rose 5 cents to $93.55 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark’s premium to West Texas Intermediate was at $12.99, compared with $11.22 on June 22 before the Norwegian strike started. Brent has lost 24 percent this quarter, also the steepest slide since the last three months of 2008.
Gasoline Demand
U.S. demand for gasoline increased 1.8 percent to 8.85 million barrels a day last week, the Energy Department said yesterday. Consumption of the fuel is still 4.5 percent lower than a year earlier, the data show. Refineries raised their utilization rate to 92.6 percent, up from the previous week’s 91.9 percent and the highest level since July 2007.
Crude stockpiles fell 133,000 barrels, the report showed. They were forecast to decline by 1.3 million barrels, according to the median estimate of 12 analysts in a Bloomberg News survey. Gasoline supplies rose 2.1 million barrels, compared with a projected increase of 1 million. Distillate inventories, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, dropped 2.3 million barrels. They were predicted to gain by 1.2 million.
U.S. orders for goods meant to last at least three years rose 1.1 percent in May, the first increase since February, a Commerce Department report showed yesterday. Pending home sales climbed 5.9 percent after slumping 5.5 percent in April, according to the National Association of Realtors.
Norway Strike
Statoil ASA (STL), Norway’s biggest energy company, estimates the industrial action by workers is curbing national oil output by as much as 250,000 barrels a day while the Oil Industry Association puts the daily loss at 240,000 barrels of crude plus 11.9 million standard cubic meters of natural gas. The country produced 1.63 million barrels of oil a day last month, according to the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate.
London-traded Brent is set to recover as a European Union ban on Iranian oil takes effect, central banks act to protect growth and on speculation that OPEC will curb some of its excess supply, according to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News.
Brent, the second-worst performer between April and June in the Standard & Poor’s GSCI commodity index, is forecast to rebound to an average $114.50 a barrel in the third quarter, according to the median estimate of 32 analysts. BNP Paribas SA, Deutsche Bank AG and Barclays Plc predict $110, $115 and $121 a barrel, respectively.
‘Price Up-cycle’
Brent slipped as low as $88.49 last week. The decline took prices below the marginal cost of production, which was $92 a barrel in 2011, according to Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. The drop “marks the start of the next oil price up-cycle,” Bernstein said in a report e-mailed today.
The EU ban on oil purchases from Iran, the second biggest exporter in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, starts on July 1 as part of Western pressure to halt the Persian Gulf nation’s nuclear program. Saudi Arabia is OPEC’s biggest shipper of crude.
The European contract will outperform West Texas Intermediate crude as the embargo takes effect and Norway’s strike cuts supply, Mirae Asset Securities said in a report today. Investors should buy Brent and sell WTI futures, Mirae recommended.
To contact the reporter on this story: Ben Sharples in Melbourne at bsharples@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Alexander Kwiatkowski in Singapore at akwiatkowsk2@bloomberg.net
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