Gold imports could pick up in the second half of 2012 if record prices ease but annual volumes will still fall about 30 percent after a tax hike, which could crimp demand until 2014, the head of Mumbai's gold trade association said.
Imports could hit 300 tonnes in the second half, up from 250 tonnes in January to June, if local prices steady around 30,000 rupees for 10 grams, said Prithviraj Kothari, president of the Bombay Bullion Association, keeping the annual fall to just 30 percent.
Volumes are likely to stay flat in 2013, he added, as the impact of a doubled import duty continues and there are fewer festival days for traditional gift-giving.
I think 2012 and 2013 should be dull, said Kothari, whose association groups about 400 jewellers and bullion dealers.
India doubled its import duty on gold to 4 percent in March in a bid to reduce the value of imports and ease its current account deficit, helping to slash first-half imports by 58.7 percent to 250 tonnes.
The only change has been the sentiment because prices are at an all-time high and the rupee has depreciated, said Kothari, who wore a gold bangle and a chunky diamond ring.
A fall in the rupee currency to record lows has driven domestic gold prices to peaks above 30,000 rupees for 10 grams, but international dollar-denominated gold prices have sunk, keeping Indian investors wary.
