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FB: Comex Gold Weaker as U.S. Dollar Rallies, But Central Bank Moves Limit Selling Interest
 
By Jim Wyckoff Of Kitco News

Comex gold futures prices are modestly lower but in choppy trading in early U.S. dealings Thursday. The higher U.S. dollar index is helping to pressure the precious meteals. However, moves by major central banks of the world Thursday are viewed as a fresh bullish input for the raw commodity markets, including gold and silver. August gold last traded down $6.80 at $1,615.00 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted down $1.90 an ounce at $1,615.25. September Comex silver last traded down $0.17 at $28.11 an ounce.

The People’s Bank of China has just cut its key deposit rate by 0.25%, to 3%. The Chinese central bank is looking to keep the world’s second-biggest economy from contracting too fast. Also, the Bank of England announced it is easing its monetary policy by increasing its bond-buying program. The European Central Banking meeting Thursday resulted in a 0.25% rate cut, which was expected by the market place. These fresh central bank moves Thursday lay more groundwork for the U.S. to embark on another quantitative easing path. Most reckon that further easing of monetary policies by the major central banks of the world (printing money) will be bullish for the raw commodity markets, including the precious metals, due to the inflationary implications of the easing.

Traders are also awaiting Friday morning’s U.S. jobs report. The most closely watched non-farm payrolls figure of the report is expected to have increased by around 90,000 in June.

The U.S. dollar index is solidly higher Thursday morning. Greenback bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage and have made a decent recovery from last week’s selling pressure. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices are higher and hit a fresh five-week high overnight. There are early clues the crude oil market has put in a bottom.

The London A.M. gold fix is $1,616.75 versus the previous London P.M. fixing of $1,613.50.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the Challenger job cuts report, weekly jobless claims, the ADP monthly employment report, the ISM non-manufacturing business report, the global services PMI, and the weekly DOE energy stocks report.

Technically, August gold futures bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field but the bulls still have some upside momentum. The gold bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at the June high of $1,642.40. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’ low of $1,547.60. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $1,625.70 and then at $1,635.40. First support is seen at the overnight low of $1,608.70 and then at $1,600.00.

September silver futures bulls had gained some upside technical momentum recently. But the bulls have more work to do in the near term to climb back on a level technical playing field with the bears. Silver bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $29.135 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $26.105. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $28.445 and then at $28.75. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $27.98 and then at this week’s low of $27.39.

Follow me on Twitter to immediately get the very latest market developments. If you are not on board, then you are not getting key analysis and perspective as fast or as often as you could! Follow me on Twitter to get my very timely intra-day and after-hours briefs on precious metals price action. The precious markets will remain very active. If you want market analysis fast, and in after-hours trading, then follow my up-to-the-second precious metals market perspective on Twitter. It’s free, too. My account is @jimwyckoff.
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