RTRS: Copper dips after weak China imports, awaits stimulus
* China copper imports drop 17.5 pct mth/mth in June
* Many investors waiting for central banks' stimulus
* Investors wary of taking heavy positions
(Updates with official prices)
By Eric Onstad
LONDON, July 10 (Reuters) - Copper dipped on Tuesday after a fall in Chinese
metal imports, but the move was tentative as investors expected further stimulus
by global central banks to inject some life to help faltering economic growth
and metals demand.
The modest losses represented the fourth decline in five days, as the market
came off a peak largely spurred by a surprise deal by European leaders on June
29.
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange shed 0.1 percent to
$7,555 a tonne in official trading after touching an intraday low of $7,508.
Copper rose 0.4 percent on Monday.
Investors were wary of taking sizeable positions either way due to uncertain
growth in top metals consumer China in the second half ahead of fresh GDP data
this week as well as the potential for more monetary easing by central banks.
"I think generally the markets are expecting a more concerted global policy
response to slower growth, so I think they're going to be waiting to see whether
or not that actually transpires," said Barclays analyst Gayle Berry in London.
Recent comments from central bankers have raised hopes for stimulus. Three
top U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers called for more quantitative easing, while
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said the bank may cut interest
rates again if economic data supported the move.
Overnight, euro zone ministers outlined an aid package to Spain aimed to
help stabilise the currency bloc, but financial markets remained sceptical.
Since the beginning of May, copper has lost 10 percent as fears resurfaced
about the European debt crisis and the global economy, but the market is
virtually flat so far this year.
"Given the global macro backdrop, copper would be a lot lower now if people
truly felt comfortable with significantly shorting it, but... we're not seeing a
lot of risk appetite amongst the investor community at the moment."
Analysts said Tuesday's Chinese trade data came in largely in line with
expectations, showing China's imports of copper fell 17.5 percent in June
compared to May.
Despite the sharp month-on-month drop in copper imports, the total for the
first half was still 47 percent higher than the same period last year.
RAYS OF HOPE
The broader Chinese trade data, however, raised concerns about the strength
of domestic demand in the world's second biggest economy.
"Base metal prices have held up well today despite the dismal China import
figures, as many believe such data will help push central banks towards more
stimulus policies soon. This means there isn't much downside room for metals
from here," said a Shanghai-based trader with an international firm.
Amid the weak trade data, signs have begun to emerge of a pick-up in copper
demand, analysts and trade sources said.
Macquarie Commodities Research analyst Bonnie Liu said she was seeing
budding signs of improving demand in China, particularly among large copper
fabricators that were receiving more orders from state grid construction.
"I think Chinese demand has bottomed out and has started to improve since
May, led by government infrastructure spending. The price outlook is comfortable
for the second half from recent lows seen in June," she said.
In aluminium, UBS cut its average LME three-month price forecast for 2012 to
98 cents a lb ($2,161 a tonne) from a previous forecast of 101 cents after
producers failed to cut capacity as much as expected.
"Without these cuts, the aluminium price will most likely continue to
slide," analyst Julien Garran said in a note, adding that the price is expected
to average 95 cents a lb ($2,095/tonne) in the third quarter.
Aluminium was not traded in official rings, but was bid at $1,922.50
a tonne, down slightly from Monday's close of $1,925, while nickel shed
1.1 percent to $16,225 a tonne in official trading.
Zinc edged 0.1 percent lower in official rings to $1,855.50 a tonne,
tin dropped to $18,700 a tonne, unchanged from a closing bid on Monday
of $18,700, and lead fell 0.1 percent to $1,877 a tonne.
Metal Prices at 1227 GMT
Comex copper in cents/lb, LME prices in $/T and SHFE prices in yuan/T
Metal Last Change Pct Move End 2011 Ytd Pct
move
COMEX Cu 341.10 -1.85 -0.54 344.75 -1.06
LME Alum 1913.25 -11.75 -0.61 2020.00 -5.28
LME Cu 7527.50 -32.50 -0.43 7600.00 -0.95
LME Lead 1871.75 -6.25 -0.33 2034.00 -7.98
LME Nickel 16210.00 -190.00 -1.16 18650.00 -13.08
LME Tin 18700.00 200.00 +1.08 19200.00 -2.60
LME Zinc 1850.75 -3.25 -0.18 1845.00 0.31
SHFE Alu 15525.00 -15.00 -0.10 15845.00 -2.02
SHFE Cu* 55140.00 -160.00 -0.29 55360.00 -0.40
SHFE Zin 14625.00 -45.00 -0.31 14795.00 -1.15
** Benchmark month for COMEX copper
* 3rd contract month for SHFE AL, CU and ZN
SHFE ZN began trading on 26/3/07
(Additional reporting by Carrie Ho in Shanghai; editing by Jason Neely)