RTRS:FOREX-Euro subdued after Italy rating downgrade
* Moody's cuts Italy credit rating by 2 notches
* Euro hovers near previous day's 2-year low vs dollar
* Aussie dollar supported as China's GDP meets expectations
By Anirban Nag
LONDON, July 13 (Reuters) - The euro hovered near two-year
lows against the dollar on Friday after a Moody's downgrade on
Italy added to an already bearish stance on the single currency,
while commodity currencies rose on growth figures from China
that met expectations.
Despite the downgrade, Italy managed to auction three-year
debt at lower borrowing costs, helping the euro hold
steady on the day at $1.2202.
The single currency stayed within sight of a two-year trough
of $1.2166 hit on trading platform EBS the previous day and was
on track for its second straight week of losses. It fell to
$1.2181 in the Asian session after Moody's cut Italy's credit
rating by two notches.
Moody's warned it could further cut the new Baa2 rating,
which stands just two notches above junk, if Italy's access to
debt markets dried up.
"The auction was not too bad but the bigger news is the
double notch downgrade rather than an auction that has gone
okay," said Derek Halpenny, European head of FX research at Bank
of Tokyo Mitsubishi.
"Disappointing economic growth, coupled with fragile
investor confidence and high peripheral yields remain ahead for
the rest of the year. Our target is for the euro to drift to
$1.15 in three to six months time."
Near-term support for the euro is expected around $1.2151,
the June 29, 2010 low, with another support level around $1.1876
a low struck on June 7, 2010.
There was some talk of an option barrier in the euro at
$1.2150. That suggests options players would bid for the euro if
it drops close to that level, offering the single currency some
support.
The euro has lost 5.7 percent so far this year, already
exceeding the losses it chalked up in 2011, with losses
accelerating after last week's deposit and refinance rate cuts
by the European Central Bank (ECB).
The unprecedented cut to zero in the deposit rate means
banks will earn nothing for parking excess funds with the ECB,
and it will encourage investors to sell the low-yielding euro
and buy higher-yielding riskier currencies.
Analysts said this left the euro vulnerable in times of both
improving and deteriorating market sentiment.
Many market players said the euro's steady drift lower meant
it could rebound in coming weeks if thin summer liquidity leads
to volatile trading conditions, but its outlook remained weak.
"While there is a risk of a short squeeze that could push
the euro higher, we expect more selling into a bounce. We also
expect the ECB to lower rates and launch unconventional measures
in coming months, all of which will keep the euro under
pressure," said Beat Siegenthaler, currency strategist at UBS.
The single currency also dropped to a four-month low against
the Norwegian crown of 7.4325 crowns, and a record
low against the Canadian dollar of C$1.2391.
CHINESE GROWTH
While the euro hovered near two-year lows against the
dollar, the Australian dollar rose 0 .4 percent to $1.0171
, boosted by data showing that China's economy grew 7.6
percent in the second quarter from a year earlier.
China's economic health is always a key driver for Australia
because the Asian powerhouse is Australia's single largest
export market.
Though the lowest reading in three years, it was exactly in
line with expectations and came as a relief to investors, who
had been worried about the risks of a weaker result especially
at a time when activity in the U.S. and Europe is slowing.
The safe-haven dollar held near a two-year peak hit against
a basket of major currencies the previous day. The dollar index
stood at 83.576, having climbed to 83.829 on Thursday,
the highest level since July 2010.
Against the yen, the dollar held steady at 79.25 yen.