Asian refiners will boost imports of Angolan crude in August to the highest level in six months while purchases from Nigeria will drop to a new low, a survey of seven traders and an analysis of loading plans obtained by Bloomberg News showed.
Refiners bought 1.31 million barrels a day from Angola, the highest since February, and oil from Nigeria will be reduced to 154,032 barrels a day, the lowest since at least August 2011, when Bloomberg started compiling the data. In total, 59 cargoes amounting to 1.76 million barrels a day will be shipped from Angola, Nigeria, Republic of Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Democratic Republic of Congo and Gabon, the survey showed.
Buyers in Asia can opt between Middle Eastern crude or Atlantic Basin grades, and their choice normally depends on the value of the lighter, sweet blends from the North Sea and West Africa versus heavier, sour grades from Saudi Arabia and Iran. Lighter crude yields more lucrative products such as diesel and gasoline. Sweet grades contain less sulfur than sour.
Compared with Nigerian grades, most Angolan crudes are heavier, with higher yield of diesel. This type of crude is “preferred in Asia because of the weakness in the petrochemicals sector, which is lowering demand for naphtha,” Max Bolhoff, senior consultant at KBC Energy Economics in Walton-on-Thames, England, said in an e-mailed response to questions on July 26.
“Indian demand growth has recently been biased toward diesel because the diesel price remains under government control while gasoline is deregulated, so diesel is now much cheaper than gasoline, and car buyers have been switching to diesel cars at a rapid pace,” Bolhoff said.
Nigerian benchmark Qua Iboe dropped to a premium of 99 cents a barrel more than Dated Brent on July 13, the lowest in more than two years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It is at $1.14 a barrel more than the benchmark today.
Chinese Demand
Refiners in China bought 34 cargoes, the most in three months, compared with 27 for July, the survey showed. China International United Petroleum & Chemical Corp., known as Unipec, bought 25 shipments, the highest since February.
India will increase imports of West African crude to 17 cargoes in August, five more than this month, the survey showed. The country’s imports of Nigerian crude will drop to four shipments, the least since September, while its purchases from Angola reached eight lots, surpassing Nigeria for the first time in at least 13 months.
Reliance Industries Ltd. (RIL), which owns the world’s largest refining complex, will boost its imports to eight cargoes next month, the most since at least August 2011, the survey showed.
Indian Oil Corp., the nation’s largest refiner, bought seven shipments, one more than July, according to the survey.
Taiwan’s state-owned CPC Corp. purchased five shipments of Angolan crude, one less than this month, the survey showed.
Brent-Dubai Spread
The Brent-Dubai exchange for swaps, which measures the European benchmark against the Persian Gulf grade, averaged $2.47 in June, compared with $3.60 in May and $3.77 in April, according to data from PVM Oil Associates Ltd. The spread fell to a 22-month low of $1.38 a barrel on June 21. Traders make more profit from shipping crudes from Europe or West Africa to Asia when the spread between the two contracts shrinks.
Asian imports of West African crude for July were revised to 1.41 million barrels a day after one cargo each from Gabon and Nigeria were added, the survey showed.
Nigeria will export 2.27 million barrels a day of crude next month while Angola will ship 1.83 million barrels, Bloomberg calculations based on loading programs showed.
The following tables show details of planned Asian imports. Most cargoes are for 950,000 to 1 million barrels. All the volumes are in barrels a day.
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Countries Number of Cargoes Total Volume
August July August July
China 34 27 1,044,677 800,645
India 17 12 491,774 352,419
Taiwan 5 6 153,226 183,871
Indonesia 2 1* 61,290 32,258*
Japan 1 2* 12,903 40,323*
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Month Cargoes Total Angola Nigeria
2012
August 59 1,763,871 1,306,613 154,032
July 46* 1,356,290* 986,774 179,839*
June 57 1,801,000 1,020,667 513,333
May 59 1,810,613 1,147,581 370,774
April 60 1,878,167 1,214,167 424,000
March 61 1,837,258 1,081,452 401,613
February 66 2,151,034 1,357,586 496,552
January 61 1,826,935 1,056,613 461,290
2011
December 47 1,433,387 993,710 279,032
November 49 1,554,500 1,028,500 285,000
October 49 1,507,742 962,581 308,065
September 42 1,344,333 930,167 287,500
August 50 1,536,613 931,774 387,097
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*Revised
To contact the reporter on this story: Sherry Su in London at lsu23@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Stephen Voss at sev@bloomberg.net
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