RTRS:METALS-Copper rises as China data raises stimulus hopes
* Shanghai copper rolls back from highest level since July
30
* China July industrial output growth at three-year low
* China CPI at 30-month low offers room for more easing
* Investors guarded ahead of U.S data
(Updates prices; adds quotes, details)
By Carrie Ho
SHANGHAI, Aug 9 (Reuters) - Copper climbed on Thursday and
Shanghai prices hit a one-week high as a mild inflation number
and disappointing factory output from top metals consumer China
raised hopes for further policy easing to boost growth in the
world's second-largest economy.
Still, gains were capped by a lacklustre Chinese physical
copper market, crimped by fears over the global economy and
lower demand during the current seasonal lull.
In July, annual growth in China's factory output slowed to
the weakest level in more than three years, while annual
consumer inflation fell to a 30-month low of 1.8 percent.
While some traders said the gloomy numbers were within their
expectations, others said they believed them to be dismal enough
to trigger policy moves by Beijing to stem slowing growth.
"I thought the China inflation numbers were terrible, but
many people were hopeful these will lead to more stimulus
measures and therefore covered their short positions," said a
Shanghai-based trader with an international firm.
Although three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange
had inched up 0.2 percent to $7,561 per tonne by 0709
GMT, the trader said overall sentiment remained cautious, citing
thinner-than-usual trading volumes as evidence.
Short-covering was also evident in the most active November
copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, with
net open interest for the contract falling 13,966 lots from
Wednesday.
Shanghai prices rose 0.8 percent to close at 55,160 yuan
($8,700) per tonnerolling back from a session peak of 55,220
yuan, the highest since July 30.
"Gains were capped by a sluggish Chinese physical market,
which is weighed down by fragile global macroeconomics and the
fact that this is the lull season for copper demand," said a
Qingdao-based metals buyer.
Investors are expected to take further trading cues from
U.S. trade and jobs data later in the day.
In Europe, a second fall in German imports in three months
gave investors more cause for caution as it fuelled fears that
the domestic mood in the euro zone's strongest economy may be
weakening under the pressure of the bloc's debt crisis.
ALUMINIUM
Demand and trading volumes for aluminium were low in the
Shanghai market as Chinese traders shied away from the metal as
it is already trading close to its marginal cost.
"Shanghai aluminium prices are not moving much as there
seems very little room to rise or fall since they are near
smelting costs," said a Shanghai-based trader.
The most-active November contract, which has fallen
about 7 percent from the year's high of 16,565 yuan in January,
inched up 0.6 percent to close the day at 15,470 yuan per tonne.
The lack of demand and interest has also pushed Shanghai
aluminium physical premiums down about $10 to $220 in the last
week, despite higher premiums elsewhere in Asia, Commonwealth
Bank of Australia said in a note on Thursday.
For nickel, Macquarie bank said in a recent note that it
expected the metal's outlook to improve after a heavy sell-off
in the past few months as Chinese nickel pig iron producers had
made "significant cuts" to production because of low prices.
LME nickel, which was trading at $15,607 per tonne,
started dipping below its marginal cost of $16,000 on July 12.
Base metals prices at 0709 GMT
Metal Last Change Pct Move YTD pct chg
LME Cu 7561.00 11.00 +0.15 -0.51
SHFE CU FUT NOV2 55160 460 +0.84 -0.84
LME Alum 1914.00 -1.00 -0.05 -5.25
SHFE AL FUT NOV2 15470 85 +0.55 -2.34
HG COPPER SEP2 343.15 1.00 +0.29 -0.13
LME Zinc 1862.00 -7.50 -0.40 0.92
SHFE ZN FUT NOV2 14795 115 +0.78 0.00
LME Nickel 15607.00 -133.00 -0.84 -16.58
LME Lead 1914.75 3.75 +0.20 -5.91
SHFE PB FUT 15080 120 +0.80 -1.37
LME Tin 18200.00 0.00 +0.00 -5.21
LME/Shanghai arb 1021
Shanghai and COMEX contracts show most active months
^ LME 3-m copper in yuan, including 17 pct VAT, minus SHFE
third month
($1 = 6.3615 Chinese yuan)