Oil fell for the second time in five days, paring its weekly gain, as a collapse in China’s export growth added to signs the global economy is weakening. Futures fell as much as 0.5 percent in New York after China’s outbound shipments increased 1 percent in July from a year earlier, the customs bureau said in a statement today in Beijing. That compares with the 8 percent median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of analysts and 11.3 percent in June. The country’s net oil imports shrank to the lowest level this year. Oil for September delivery dropped as much as 44 cents to $92.92 a barrel and traded at $93 in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 1:36 p.m. Singapore time. Prices climbed 1 cent yesterday and are 1.8 percent higher this week. Brent crude for September settlement was at $112.73 a barrel, down 49 cents, on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange after advancing 1 percent yesterday. The European benchmark’s premium to West Texas Intermediate was at $19.82. China’s net crude imports were 21.6 million metric tons, according to data released on the website of the Beijing-based General Administration of Customs today. That’s the equivalent of 5.1 million barrels a day, the least since December 2011. The country’s July exports of all goods increased 1 percent from a year earlier. Industrial output increased 9.2, less than the 9.7 percent forecast, according to data yesterday. Price Forecast Oil may rise in New York next week as refineries operate near the highest level in five years and as tension in the Middle East raises concern that supply may be disrupted, a Bloomberg survey showed. Ten of 21 analysts and traders, or 48 percent, forecast crude will advance through Aug. 17. Eight respondents, or 38 percent, predicted that futures will fall, and three said there will be little change in prices. Last week, 39 percent of analysts projected an increase and another 39 percent saw a decline. International sanctions against Iran have reduced exports from the Persian Gulf nation more than previously forecast, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in a report e-mailed today. There is a shortfall of 1.4 million barrels a day from Iran that “substantially exceeds� the bank’s estimates, it said. While the possible resumption of exports from South Sudan might partly offset that shortage, it’s unclear when supply from the African country will resume, according to the report. Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia reduced production by 300,000 barrels a day last month from the highest in at least three decades, according to data it provided to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. The world’s biggest crude exporter pumped 9.8 million barrels a day in July, compared with 10.1 million in June, OPEC said in a report yesterday. Iraq’s crude output rose above 3 million barrels a day last month for the first time since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein, according to OPEC. Iraq pumped 3.08 million barrels a day in July, 115,000 barrels more than the previous month. Tropical Depression Seven was about 1,045 miles (1,680 kilometers) east of the Windward Islands with winds of 35 miles per hour, the National Hurricane Center said before 11 p.m. Atlantic time yesterday. Tropical Storm Ernesto moved onto land and began losing power over the mountains of Mexico. To contact the reporter on this story: Ben Sharples in Melbourne at bsharples@bloomberg.net To contact the editor responsible for this story: Alexander Kwiatkowski at akwiatkowsk2@bloomberg.net

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