RTRS: U.S. Sept natural gas futures dip, ignoring Isaac, before expiry
NEW YORK, Aug 29 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures lost
ground on Wednesday for a fifth straight session, with record
high supplies and bearish technicals driving the front contract
to a new 10-week low ahead of expiration.
Traders shrugged off concerns about Hurricane Isaac and
focused instead on slowing summer demand and lofty supply.
At 9:10 a.m. EDT (1310 GMT), front-month September gas
futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange, which expire
Wednesday, were down 2.4 cents, or nearly 1 percent, at $2.59
per million British thermal units after sinking early to $2.575,
the lowest level since late June.
The front contract, which hit its high for the year at $3.28
in late July, has lost 7.5 percent over the previous four
sessions. It is down more than 18 percent so far this month as
temperature extremes moderated and slowed overall demand.
Isaac slammed into the Louisiana coast early Wednesday as a
Category 1 hurricane. But the system, which on Tuesday had cut
nearly 70 percent of daily offshore Gulf gas production, or 3
billion cubic feet, was not expected to do any long-term damage
to offshore oil and gas producing facilities.
Severe onshore flooding was the main threat from Isaac,
which was poised to move inland at a relatively slow 6 mph.
Chart traders said Monday's front-month close below key
support at $2.70 followed by a second lower close on Tuesday
turned the chart picture bearish and set the stage for more
downside.
With Fibonacci retracement support in the $2.60 area
breached Wednesday morning, traders pegged next support along
the up trendline in the mid-$2.50s drawn from the April and June
lows. Further buying was expected at $2.50.
With inventories still at record highs for this time of year
and production flowing at or near an all-time peak, traders said
there were few worries about gas supplies this year.
Some expect Isaac to have a bearish impact, slowing demand
in the South and Midwest as heavy clouds and rain cool inland
temperatures.
While temperatures have moderated somewhat from the record
heat in July, traders said there was still some lingering warmth
expected this week in the Midwest and Northeast, key gas
consuming regions, that should stir demand.
But private forecaster MDA EarthSat expects the heat to pull
out of the Northeast early next week. Most of the eastern half
of the nation should see seasonal temperatures late next week.
Most analysts agree that gas prices need to stay between
$2.50 and $3 heading into autumn in order to encourage utilities
to burn gas rather than coal to generate power. A loss of that
demand could lead to larger weekly storage builds and stir
concerns about inventories testing total capacity before winter.
HIGH STORAGE, OUTPUT
Record heat this summer has helped slow weekly storage
builds to below the seasonal norm for 17 straight weeks, but
with summer heat fading, builds are expected to pick up.
Injection estimates for Thursday's Energy Information
Administration report range from 49 billion to 74 billion cubic
feet, with most in the low-60s.
Stocks rose an adjusted 60 bcf during the same week last
year. The five-year average increase for that week is 62 bcf.
EIA data last week showed that gas inventories were still at
record highs for this time, hovering at a level not normally
reached until the third week of September.
(Storage graphic: link.reuters.com/mup44s)
While the Baker Hughes gas drilling rig count has fallen in
12 of the last 14 weeks to a 13-year low, traders note there is
little evidence so far that gas output is slowing.
(Rig graphic: r.reuters.com/dyb62s )
Dry gas drilling may be largely uneconomical at current
prices, but the associated gas produced from more profitable
shale oil and shale gas liquids wells is likely to keep gas
production at a record high for a second straight year.
(Reporting by Joe Silha; Editing by Bernadette Baum)