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WSJ:OIL FUTURES: Crude up in Asian Trading, Supported by Supply Concerns
 

By Jacob Gronholt-Pedersen

Crude-oil futures rose in Asian trading Friday, rebounding after a selloff earlier this week and supported by concerns over potential supply disruptions from the Middle East following escalating violence in the region.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in November traded at $93.13 a barrel at 0657 GMT, up $0.71 in the Globex electronic session. November Brent crude on London's ICE Futures exchange rose $0.47 to $110.50 a barrel.

The gains come after Brent crude settled slightly higher Thursday. Crude prices rallied last week on news of quantitative easing in the U.S., but those gains were more than erased at the beginning of this week as prices plummeted 9%.

Prices failed to react to this week's monetary easing steps by the Bank of Japan. Julian Jessop, an economist at Capital Economics, expects any support for commodity prices, including oil, from quantitative easing to be small and short-lived.

"The clue is partly in the name--this is the third round of quantitative easing, and the bulk of the benefits from large-scale asset purchases have already been achieved," Jessop said.

The first two rounds of quantitative easing were undertaken when global oil prices were much lower, around $50 and $75 a barrel, respectively, whereas Brent is now at over $100.

"Unless there is a prolonged military confrontation with Iran, we expect Brent to fall back to around $85 next year," Jessop said.

The current price support may be fuelled by recent anti-American violence in the Middle East and the deadly attack on the U.S. consulate in Libya. In addition, protesters in Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Indonesia took to the streets Thursday to show their anger against an amateur anti-Islam video.

Based on data from U.K.-based tanker tracker Oil Movements, oil shipments from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will likely decrease by 170,000 barrels a day in the four weeks ending Oct. 6.

Oil advisory firm Ritterbusch and Associates says the recent small signs of support are unlikely to signal a recovery in prices.

"We feel that it is premature to suggest that a bottom has been placed, as large speculators still appear intent upon using even modest crude price advances as opportunities to reduce bullish exposure," Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note.

Nymex reformulated gasoline blendstock for October--the benchmark gasoline contract--rose 85.00001 points to $2.9125 a gallon, while October heating oil traded at $3.1096, 121 points higher.

ICE gasoil for October changed hands at $972.75 a metric ton, up $9.50 from Thursday's settlement.

Write to Jacob Gronholt-Pedersen at jacob.pedersen@dowjones.com
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