RTRS: UPDATE 1-US natgas futures hit 2012 high ahead of storage data
* High nuclear plant outages boost near-term demand
* New front month gaps higher to 2012 high
* Mild autumn weather should limit more gains
* Coming up: EIA gas storage data Thursday
(Recasts, adds cash prices, updates futures prices)
By Eileen Houlihan
NEW YORK, Sept 27 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures rose
more than 2 percent early on Thursday to their highest level of
2012 ahead of weekly inventory data.
Traders said a large number of nuclear power plant outages
has helped boost near-term demand, but mild autumn weather
across much of the nation could limit more upside.
Autumn injections into inventories are also poised to pick
up as weather loads fade, with this week's report expected to
show the first near-seasonal build in a month and only the
second in the last 21 weeks.
Most traders and analysts expect weekly data from the U.S.
Energy Information Administration to show a build of about 76
billion cubic feet when it is released Thursday at 10:30 a.m.
EDT (1430 GMT), a Reuters poll showed.
Stocks rose an adjusted 104 bcf for the same week last year,
and on average over the past five years have gained 76 bcf that
week.
Despite recent gains, most traders agree prices will have a
hard time remaining well above $3 per million British thermal
units, the level at which gas loses market share over coal for
power generation.
As of 9:58 a.m. EDT (1358 GMT), new front-month November
natural gas futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange
were at $3.272 per mmBtu, up 5.7 cents, or nearly 2 percent. The
contract rose as high as $3.287 in electronic trade, matching
its highest mark since last December.
In the cash market, gas bound for the NYMEX delivery point
Henry Hub NG-W-HH in Louisiana was heard early up 9 cents at
$3.01 on volume near 827 million cubic feet.
Early deals eased to nearly 25 cents under the new
front-month contract, from deals done late Wednesday 3 cents
under the October contract.
Gas on the Transco pipeline at the New York citygate
NG-NYCZ6 was heard up 3 cents early at $3.10 on volume near
291 mmcf.
The National Weather Service's six- to 10-day outlook issued
on Wednesday called for normal temperatures for much of the
nation, with a wide swath of below-normal readings in the
mid-Continent and some above-normal readings in the West.
On the nuclear front, outages on Thursday totaled 16,600
megawatts, or 16 percent of U.S. capacity, down slightly from
16,800 MW out on Wednesday, but up from 12,000 MW out a year ago
and a five-year outage rate of about 12,900 MW.
STOCKS HIGH DESPITE LIGHTER-THAN-NORMAL BUILDS
Last week's EIA gas storage report showed total domestic
inventories rose the prior week by 67 bcf to 3.496 trillion
cubic feet.
Most traders viewed the build as neutral, noting it was
above Reuters poll estimates for a 64-bcf gain, but below last
year's rise of 89 bcf and the five-year average increase for
that week of 73 bcf.
Storage stands 320 bcf, or 10 percent, above the same week
in 2011 and 278 bcf, or 9 percent, above the five-year average.
(Storage graphic: link.reuters.com/mup44s)
Record heat this summer has kept weekly storage builds below
the seasonal norm in 20 of the last 21 weeks and helped trim a
huge storage surplus to last year from its late-March peak near
900 bcf.
But stocks are still at record highs for this time of year
and hovering at a level not normally reached until the second
week of October.
Concerns remain that the inventory overhang will pressure
prices soon if storage caverns fill to near capacity and back
more natural gas into an already well-supplied market.
RIGS RISE IN LATEST WEEK, PRODUCTION STILL HIGH
Drilling for natural gas has been in a nearly steady decline
for the last 11 months, but the gas-directed rig count rose last
week by six to 454, Baker Hughes data showed. The tally hit a
13-year low the previous week.
While pure gas drilling has become largely uneconomical at
current prices, gas produced from more-profitable shale oil and
shale gas liquids wells has kept output stubbornly high.
(Rig graphic: r.reuters.com/dyb62s)