RTRS:EURO GOVT-Spanish yields rise before stress tests, rating review
* Bund futures, Spanish bond yields rise
* Markets cheer 2013 budget
* Bank stress tests, pending Moody's review still weigh
By Marius Zaharia
LONDON, Sept 28 (Reuters) - Spanish bond yields edged up on
Friday, with uncertainty over looming bank stress tests and a
rating review offsetting the impact of a 2013 budget that many
see as an effort to pre-empt the likely terms of a bailout.
Madrid announced a crisis budget on Thursday based on
spending cuts rather than tax measures, increasing expectations
that a rescue package is not far away.
A bailout agreement would in all probability ease Spain's
borrowing costs by activating the European Central Bank's new
bond-buying programme.
While the debt market cautiously welcomed the budget plans,
lingering uncertainties about Spain meant demand for the
country's high-yielding bonds remained subdued.
An independent audit should reveal later on Friday the
extent of the damage a collapsed property market has done to
Spanish banks, and Moody's Investors Service is expected to
complete its sovereign rating review by the end of the month.
Spanish 10-year yields rose 7 basis points to
6.05 percent. They have traded in an uncomfortable 5.6-7.8
percent range throughout an extremely volatile third quarter
that saw investors' mood shifting from concern the euro might
break up to optimism the ECB can cure the bloc's debt pains.
"It's still not over. We have the stress test results ...
(and) a rating downgrade may cause some forced selling," ING
rate strategist Alessandro Giansanti said.
The Moody's review could push Spain's ratings below
investment grade, into so-called "junk" territory.
"HOSTAGE TO POLITICIANS"
Question marks over the government's credibility also
prevented Spanish bonds from rallying on Friday.
Spain is expected to miss its 2012 budget deficit target and
Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy is struggling domestically,
with anti-austerity protests gaining momentum and separatist
sentiment running high in the wealthy Catalonia region.
"They're making the right noises, but whether they can
actually put (the budget measures) in practice is a different
matter in a country with no growth and 25 percent unemployment,"
one trader said. "I'm going to remain sceptical."
Peter Allwright, head of absolute return on rates and
currency at RWC Partners, said he was staying away from Spanish
bond markets. His instinct was to short Spain, but the prospect
of ECB bond-buying made him cautious about doing so.
"You're hostage to politicians, which is very hard to trade
on. If you trade on economics, they are uniformly bad," said
Allwright, whose group manages assets worth $5 billion.
"But also you don't try to fight central bankers until you
know you can win."
A bond auction next week will give more clues about
investors' appetite for Spanish bonds.
Safe-haven German Bund futures were 28 ticks higher
at 141.85. Some 62 percent of the funds that responded to a
Reuters poll said they planned further cuts to their German Bund
holdings as a result of the ECB plans.
But RWC Partners' Allwright expected Bunds to remain broadly
supported even if the ECB started to buy Spanish bonds as major
central banks are likely to keep their monetary policies relaxed
for a prolonged period.