BLBG:Ruble Heads for Biggest Monthly Gain Since January on Oil, Taxes
The ruble strengthened for a second day, heading for the biggest monthly gain since January, as companies bought the currency for tax payments and crude oil, Russia’s main export earner, advanced.
The ruble appreciated 0.3 percent to 31.0051 versus the dollar by 2:24 p.m. in Moscow. It gained 4.2 percent this month. The ruble weakened 0.4 percent against the euro at 40.1140 and was little changed against the central bank’s euro-dollar basket.
The Russian currency gained as companies converted earnings to pay about 200 billion rubles ($6.5 billion) of end-of-month taxes, according to Vladimir Kolychev, head of research at Societe Generale SA’s OAO Rosbank (ROSB) unit in Moscow. Brent crude rose 0.9 percent in London to $112.99 a barrel. Oil and natural gas contribute about half of Russia’s government revenue. Societe General recommended buying the ruble against the basket, according to an e-mailed note.
“Oil, which continues to trend upwards, is arguably the most important driver today,” Kolychev said by e-mail. The tax payments are also helping, he added.
Bank Rossii broke with major economies in a surprise interest-rate increase on Sept. 13, citing higher prices and inflation expectations. It raised the refinancing rate to 8.25 percent from 8 percent, the first increase in 16 months.
“Russia stands out in terms of monetary policy,” Societe Generale analysts wrote in the note.
Non-deliverable forwards showed the ruble at 31.4975 per dollar in three months compared to 31.4700 yesterday.
The extra yield investors demand to own Russia’s dollar bonds over U.S. Treasuries fell seven basis points to 210, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s EMBI Global Index. An index of five-year government bond yields compiled by the Micex fell less than one basis point to 7.615 percent.
To contact the reporter on this story: Lyubov Pronina in London at lpronina@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Gavin Serkin at gserkin@bloomberg.net