RTRS:METALS-Copper edges up on China stimulus hopes
* More policy fine-tuning in China until congress - analysts
* Rio Tinto sees production growth ahead for its copper arm
* Coming up: ECB'S Draghi to speak in Brussels; 0730 GMT
(Updates prices; adds quotes, details)
By Carrie Ho
SHANGHAI, Oct 9 (Reuters) - London copper edged up on
Tuesday, coming off its lowest in more than a week hit in the
previous session, on hopes top metals consumer China could roll
out more pro-growth policies ahead of a key leadership congress
next month to stabilise its economy.
Still, copper prices are likely to stay in a tight range
ahead of a slew of key economic data from China this week, while
nagging euro zone debt woes and a gloomy report from the OECD on
the world's major economies is set to cap gains.
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange
crept up 0.2 percent to $8,202.25 per tonne by 0714 GMT, after
falling 1.3 percent on Monday. Copper hit a low of $8,128 on
Monday, its weakest since Sept. 27.
The most active January copper contract on the Shanghai
Futures Exchange rose 0.5 percent to close the session
at 59,230 yuan ($9,400) per tonne.
"Prices have risen partly because some investors believe
copper was oversold yesterday. There is also renewed
expectations of China rolling out new measures to bolster the
economy," said Andy Du, derivatives director at Orient Futures.
Analysts said they expect the Chinese government to announce
more moves, such as reverse bond repurchases and strategic stock
investments to boost the stock market.
"Losses in base metal prices will be capped despite weak
fundamentals and global economic worries as investors expect
Beijing to do the necessary fine-tuning to stabilise the economy
before the 18th Communist Party Congress," said CIFCO Futures
analyst Zhou Jie, referring to China's leadership transition
event scheduled on Nov. 8.
"But I don't expect any major easing or stimulus policies in
China in the meantime."
In Chinese copper physical markets, traders said consumer
demand was still weak with spot prices trading at a 150-yuan
discount to ShFE front-month copper prices.
"Chinese physical copper demand is still sluggish and this
will pull down futures prices over the medium term unless we see
more stimulus policies or signs of the global economy
improving," a Shanghai-based physical trader said.
The market also took note of comments by Rio Tinto
that it saw production growth ahead for its copper arm and
remained "optimistic" on the outcome of talks with China on a
power deal for its key Oyu Tolgoi copper-gold project. The
miner, however, warned it was cautious on the broader economic
outlook.
Euro zone sentiment improved for the second consecutive
month in October, while its largest economy Germany saw its
trade surplus hit its highest level in five years in August.
However, Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain are
still struggling with crippling debts. Greece has failed to meet
bailout conditions, and Monday's meeting among euro zone finance
ministers and the International Monetary Fund also failed to
decide how best to get Greece back on track with its bailout
programme.
In other metals, aluminium dropped 0.3 percent on Shanghai
and 0.04 percent on London.
"Our recent study showed total aluminium inventories in
China jumping by 100,000 tonnes over the National Day holiday
period to around 1 million tonnes," said Shanghai Metal Markets
analyst Zhang Chenguang.
"Supply has swelled this year due to subsidies given to
aluminium smelters by local governments. We estimate an
oversupply of around 700,000 tonnes in the Chinese market this
year," he added.
Base metals prices at 0714 GMT
Metal Last Change Pct Move YTD pct chg
LME Cu 8202.25 17.25 +0.21 7.92
SHFE CU FUT JAN3 59230 300 +0.51 6.47
LME Alum 2081.75 -0.75 -0.04 3.06
SHFE AL FUT JAN3 15665 -40 -0.25 -1.10
HG COPPER DEC2 373.45 1.65 +0.44 8.69
LME Zinc 2044.00 10.00 +0.49 10.79
SHFE ZN FUT JAN3 15575 55 +0.35 5.27
LME Nickel 18141.00 66.00 +0.37 -3.04
LME Lead 2263.00 3.00 +0.13 11.20
SHFE PB FUT 16030 -10 -0.06 4.84
LME Tin 22150.00 50.00 +0.23 15.36
LME/Shanghai arb 1100
Shanghai and COMEX contracts show most active months
^ LME 3-m copper in yuan, including 17 pct VAT, minus SHFE
third month