WSJ:OIL FUTURES: Crude Gains on Middle East Supply Risks; US Stocks Data in Focus
By Surabhi Sahu
Crude-oil futures edged higher in Asia Thursday as investors focused on geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, brushing aside bearish news Wednesday about a cut in projected global demand by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and rising U.S. stockpiles.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in November traded at $91.44 a barrel at 0630 GMT, up $0.19 in the Globex electronic session. November Brent crude on London's ICE Futures exchange rose $0.56 to $114.89 a barrel.
OPEC reduced its 2012 forecast for global oil demand by 100,000 barrels a day from its previous projection.
"We will expect a similar downsizing out of Friday's monthly IEA [International Energy Agency] report," Jim Ritterbusch at Ritterbusch and Associates said in a report late Wednesday.
Inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute was bearish, traders said. U.S. oil inventories rose 1.646 million barrels in the week ended Oct. 5, API data showed Wednesday. Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires estimated inventories will rise by 600,000 barrels.
The more closely-watched inventory survey from the U.S. Energy Information Administration is due at 11 a.m. EDT Thursday this week.
Any significant departure from API's estimate will likely prompt investors to adjust positions.
However, oil prices may continue to draw support from the Middle East situation, traders said, adding that the outlook for Brent crude is more bullish than for WTI due to supply risks.
"The perception and reality of military conflict risk in the Middle East is changing, forcing oil markets to re-evaluate potential geopolitical scenarios beyond the potential for a unilateral, pre-emptive strike by Israel against Iran," J.P. Morgan said in a research report late Wednesday, noting that the Syria-Turkey conflict adds a "new dynamic" to the oil market.
The global oil market is now more concerned about a possible threat to exports of 1 million barrels a day of crude from Turkish ports near Ceyhan, close to Syria's border, it said.
Brent will also be supported by continued supply outages in the North Sea, a Tokyo-based trader said, tipping the European benchmark to rise to $117 in the coming sessions.
Nymex reformulated gasoline blendstock for November--the benchmark gasoline contract--fell 17 points to $2.9576 a gallon, while November heating oil traded at $3.2245, 114 points higher.
ICE gasoil for October changed hands at $1024.25 a metric ton, down $1.25 from Wednesday's settlement.
Write to Surabhi Sahu at surabhi.sahu@dowjones.com