* China copper fabricators consider Q4 exports -analyst * Indonesia tin exports jump 75 pct in Sept -official * European shares, euro fall after Spanish downgrade By Susan Thomas LONDON, Oct 11 (Reuters) - Copper rose on Thursday from two-week lows, but the gains are likely to be muted as investors fret about the growth outlook for big metals consumer China and the grinding debt crisis in the euro zone. Investors shunned European shares and the euro as a heavy downgrade of Spain by ratings firm S&P added to pressure on Madrid to apply for a bailout and Greece remained on the brink of collapse. Industrial metals fell on Wednesday after Chinese car sales disappointed, adding to downward pressures from a slowing economy and rising fuel costs that have weighed on the world's biggest auto market. Aluminium producer Alcoa followed that news with an announcement that it was lowering its demand forecast. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange was up 0.6 percent at $8,225 per tonne after hitting a two-week low of $8,105. It closed at $8,165 on Wednesday. Ross Strachan, an economist at Capital Economics, said the gains were small, and it was likely that prices could fall further, especially after China publishes trade data this weekend and its gross domestic product figures next week. "I think there is a likelihood that GDP could be weaker than some in the market are anticipating, and therefore that will perhaps drag on metals prices," Strachan said. China is scheduled to publish third-quarter GDP data next week, with investors anticipating a seventh straight quarter of slowing growth, and economists were reluctant to make fresh forecasts so close to the release date as they run the risk of having to immediately revise their assumptions. Copper prices which rallied nearly 10 percent after monetary easing announcements by the U.S. Federal Reserve and a bond buying promise by the European Central Bank on Sept. 6 have lost momentum as the reality of stuttering global and China growth. Deutsche Bank said feedback from a recent field trip by the bank's equity analysts to China showed general sentiment in the industrial metals sector remained bearish. China is the world's top consumer of metals, accounting for 40 percent of refined copper demand last year. The euro dipped to its lowest since Oct. 1 after Standard & Poor's on Wednesday cut Spain's sovereign credit rating to BBB-minus, before it recovered, easing some pressure on metals. A stronger greenback dents the appeal of U.S. dollar-priced metals to holders of other currencies. TEPID Tepid demand growth and improving mine supply will next year swing the copper market into a 458,000-tonne surplus, snapping a three-year run of deficits, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said on Wednesday. Along similar lines, China's demand signals remained so slack for the fourth quarter that some semis manufacturers were considering further exports of surplus stock, a China copper analyst at a producer said. "Seasonally, in July and August we expect weaker demand but by October it should improve. But some copper semis producers are saying that Q4 orders are in line with Q3, and maybe even have declined a little bit. They're talking about exporting their extra copper to foreign countries," she said. "Codelco import cathode negotiations are coming up and so are TC/RC (treatment and refining charge) talks, so we can find a signal on growth expectations for next year. There may be some change in sentiment after LME Week in London next week," she added. Top copper producer Chile's Codelco is expected to agree on term premiums of around $105 for shipments of refined copper cathode to China during the industry's key event, LME Week, when smelters will also hammer out 2013 processing fees with miners. In other metals, a resumption in tin shipments from Indonesia, the world's top exporter, could weigh on prices that rallied more than 10 percent in September in part as markets responded to a halt in exports. Refined tin exports gained 75 percent last month to 9,874.47 tonnes from 5,645.87 tonnes in August, a trade official said. Three-month tin was $22050 per tonne, from $21,825 at the close on Wednesday. Three-month zinc was $1990 per tonne from $1974, lead was at $2,212 f rom $2197, aluminium was at $2,017 from $2,009 and nickel was $17,705 from $17,670. Metal Prices at 1023 GMT Comex copper in cents/lb, LME prices in $/T and SHFE prices in yuan/T Metal Last Change Pct Move End 2011 Ytd Pct move COMEX Cu 373.35 1.40 +0.38 344.75 8.30 #VALUE! #VALUE! LME Lead 2211.25 14.25 +0.65 2034.00 8.71 LME Nickel 17687.00 17.00 +0.10 18650.00 -5.16 LME Tin 22001.00 176.00 +0.81 19200.00 14.59 LME Zinc 1988.50 14.50 +0.73 1845.00 7.78 SHFE Alu 15490.00 -50.00 -0.32 15845.00 -2.24 SHFE Cu* 58990.00 100.00 +0.17 55360.00 6.56 SHFE Zin 15270.00 -65.00 -0.42 14795.00 3.21 ** Benchmark month for COMEX copper * 3rd contract month for SHFE AL, CU and ZN SHFE ZN began trading on 26/3/07

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