RTRS:METALS-Copper slips ahead of China data, eyes weekly loss
* LME copper set to post biggest weekly loss in 2 mths
* Zinc biggest weekly loser in Shanghai, London
* Zinc surplus set to drag out as mine closures delayed
* Coming up: U.S. CFTC commitment of traders data; 1930 GMT
(Adds quotes, details; previous SINGAPORE)
By Eric Onstad
LONDON, Oct 12 (Reuters) - Copper fell on Friday on concern about demand in
top metals consumer China ahead of trade and growth data next week as the market
geared up for its biggest weekly loss in two months.
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange shed 0.9 percent to
$8,167.25 a tonne by 1020 GMT, reversing small gains in the previous session
when prices rebounded after hitting their lowest in two weeks at $8,105 a tonne.
Copper has drifted in a range of about $8,100-$8,400 a tonne for the past
month as investors refocused on underlying demand amid sluggish global growth
after the excitement of central bank stimulus measures that sent prices up
around 10 percent.
"There's quite a debate out there right now about the extent of the economic
slowdown in China and what real impact this is having on metals demand," said
Stephen Briggs, metals strategist at BNP Paribas in London.
Chinese trade data, due to be released over the weekend, is expected to show
copper imports rising in September from the previous month, but this may mostly
be due to the arrival of term shipments booked last year, Standard Chartered
Bank analyst Judy Zhu said.
On Thursday, third quarter GDP data is expected to show China's economic
growth slowed for a seventh straight quarter to the weakest level since the
depths of the global financial crisis.
Lacklustre demand in China, which accounts for about 40 percent of global
copper consumption, has pressured prices, which are set to fall for the third
week out of the past four, sliding about 1.6 percent on the LME.
But Briggs believes copper prices will hold up during the quarter, even
though the market is forecast to switch from deficit to surplus next year, due
to further central bank stimulus, doubts about potential supply increases and a
tight market outside of China where LME stocks are low.
"Although I think it (the surplus) is going to happen, the market is going
to need some proof of that and in the interim you can justify prices staying
above $8,000," Briggs said.
"I think there is a decent chance that we could get to $9,000 in November,
December, but it's a fine call because there will be some downward pressure next
year."
On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the most-traded January copper contract
closed flat at 58,980 yuan ($9,400) a tonne and posted a 0.8 percent
weekly fall, its biggest since the week of Aug. 5.
"Shanghai copper is stifled today by a fall in Chinese equities and a lack
of new reasons to cheer. Trading is also directionless ahead of upcoming China
data with investors keeping to a range of 58,000-60,000 yuan," said CIFCO
Futures analyst Zhou Jie.
OVERSUPPLIED ZINC
In other metals, zinc was due to be the biggest weekly loser among both LME
and Shanghai metals. Shanghai zinc dropped 3 percent and the
three-month LME contract was on track to shed 6.5 percent.
"Fundamentally the zinc market remains oversupplied, and prospects for mine
closures moving the market into deficit have been delayed," said analyst Ric
Deverell of Credit Suisse in a note, saying an improvement in demand would be
needed to support prices, which look vulnerable.
"The outlook for premiums appears much stronger, but this could lead to
weaker flat prices, with smelters relying more on premium revenue, as has been
the case with aluminium."
Minmetals Futures analyst Chen Yuan said: "Many Chinese zinc smelters have
been taking up short positions on the futures market to lock in high prices
during the recent rally."
On Friday, LME zinc fell 1.3 percent to $1,940.75 per tonne.
Three month aluminium lost 0.5 percent to $2,003.5 a tonne and
nickel shed 1.8 percent to $17,408.
Tin gave up 1.1 percent to $21,655 a tonne and lead fell 1.0
percent to $2,160.75.
Metal Prices at 1023 GMT
Comex copper in cents/lb, LME prices in $/T and SHFE prices in yuan/T
Metal Last Change Pct Move End 2011 Ytd Pct
move
COMEX Cu 372.50 -2.70 -0.72 344.75 8.05
LME Alum 2002.25 -6.75 -0.34 2020.00 -0.88
LME Cu 8166.00 -73.50 -0.89 7600.00 7.45
LME Lead 2160.25 -22.75 -1.04 2034.00 6.21
LME Nickel 17407.00 -318.00 -1.79 18650.00 -6.66
LME Tin 21630.00 -270.00 -1.23 19200.00 12.66
LME Zinc 1941.50 -25.50 -1.30 1845.00 5.23
SHFE Alu 15460.00 -30.00 -0.19 15845.00 -2.43
SHFE Cu* 58960.00 -30.00 -0.05 55360.00 6.50
SHFE Zin 15210.00 -60.00 -0.39 14795.00 2.81
** Benchmark month for COMEX copper
* 3rd contract month for SHFE AL, CU and ZN
SHFE ZN began trading on 26/3/07