EG: U.S. GAS: Colder Forecast Pushes Futures Higher
By John M. Biers
Natural gas futures jumped Tuesday morning as forecasters pointed to colder temperatures in the next six to 10 days.
Natural gas for December delivery rose 4.2 cents, or 1.1%, to recently trade at $3.761 a million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
The moderate temperatures now present in most of the country are expected to subside around Sunday as a burst of cold air arrives from Canada and spreads through the plains, the Midwest and the East Coast, said Travis Hartman, energy manager at MDA Weather Services.
Weather forecasts are closely watched by the natural gas markets because colder temperatures boost demand for natural gas used in heating.
"It's shaping up to be a pretty cool outlook for the end of November," Mr. Hartman said.
The market is closely watching the weekly natural gas storage report, which will be moved up this week to Wednesday instead of Thursday in light of the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S.
Although the quantity of gas in storage now stands 5.6% above the five-year average for this time of year, several analysts expect to see a withdrawal in this week's inventory report. A big withdrawal around 30 bcf could send gas prices higher, said John Woods of brokerage J.J. Woods Associates.
"You do have ample gas in the ground, but you do see the market begin to chip away at it," Mr. Woods said. "Short-term, you're looking at a bullish weather picture."
Mr. Woods sees support in the gas market to push the price to $4/bcf, though he thinks such a rise could be short-lived.
Natural gas for next-day delivery at the benchmark Henry Hub in Louisiana recently traded at $3.62/MMBtu, according to IntercontinentalExchange, compared with $3.6307/MMBtu average of $3.97/MMBtu. Natural gas for next-day delivery at Transcontinental Zone 6 in New York traded at $3.97/MMBtu, up from $3.9683/MMBtu.