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RTRS:Sterling hit by weak UK data, falls to 9-month low versus euro
 
(Reuters) - Sterling fell to a nine-month low against a buoyant euro and dropped against the dollar on Friday after weak UK industrial output in November added to a grim outlook for the British economy.

The euro rose to 82.34 pence from around 82.18 pence before the data was released, up 0.3 percent and extending gains into a sixth straight day. It was the euro's highest level since mid-April, 2012 with reported option barriers at 82.50 likely to be threatened, traders said.
The pound fell 0.3 percent on the day to a session low of $1.6108 (9993 pence), down from around $1.6145 before the data was released. Near term support is seen at around $1.6104 - the high struck on Jan 4 - with bids cited below $1.6100.

"Sterling weakness has been shown from weak numbers this morning," said Daragh Maher, currency strategist at HSBC, adding that as the euro had broken past the 82.25 pence high it could target February 2012 highs of 85 pence. He added sterling could fall to $1.60 and target the 200-day moving average at $1.59.

Consumer spending and output in the UK have stagnated, implying a growing amount of spare capacity in the economy. The latest industrial data underpins that trend and will keep expectations alive that the UK could face another contraction and will need more monetary stimulus.

In contrast, the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi offered no clues on when the bank might cut rates again after the Governing Council decided to keep rates on hold at an historic low 0.75 percent. That cooled expectations of a rate cut and pushed the euro higher across the board.

"The euro moved higher on the ECB, but euro/sterling gained even more given the weak UK data," said Adam Myers, senior forex strategist at Credit Agricole. "We could see euro/sterling rise up to 83.45 pence in the coming weeks after which gains could become a bit hard to come by."

STRUGGLING UK

The Bank kept its main interest rate at a record low 0.5 percent on Thursday and said it would not buy any government bonds on top of the 375 billion pounds purchased so far.

None of the 64 economists polled by Reuters had expected any policy change, but there was speculation among a few traders that the Bank could still consider easing. That had dragged the pound to a near six-week low of $1.5992 on Wednesday before buying by Middle East investors pushed it higher.

Traders expect the pound to trade in a $1.58 to $1.63 range in coming months. Gains are likely to be capped as the UK is expected to struggle given its biggest trading partner the euro zone could go through a recession, at least in the first half of the year.

There is a risk the pound could ease as the UK could lose its prized triple-A rating if growth continues to flounder and the government misses its debt reduction targets.

Analysts said sterling was also likely to suffer given safe-haven inflows from investors seeking to flee the euro zone debt crisis were waning. Last year, investors seeking safety from a possible euro zone break up had piled into top-rated UK gilts.

"We think there is a risk these inflows reverse, on the back of UK downgrade risks and ongoing exceptionally poor macro performance," said George Saravelos, currency strategist at Deutsche Bank, recommending investors to buy euro versus sterling and sell sterling against the dollar.

Source