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BLBG:Yen Falls Toward 100 Per Dollar on Signs U.S. Economy Picking Up
 
The yen held a loss against the dollar after its biggest decline in two weeks on signs the U.S. recovery is gathering pace.
The yen traded 0.7 percent from 100 per dollar after figures on May 3 showed the U.S. jobless rate unexpectedly fell to a four-year low. Australia’s currency slid against all 16 of its most-traded peers after a report today showed retail sales shrank, before the central bank decides on interest rates tomorrow. The Malaysian ringgit rallied to the highest in 1 1/2 years against the dollar after Prime Minister Najib Razak’s coalition was re-elected with a clear majority.
“Stronger U.S. data provided a fresh reason to sell the yen,” said Sean Callow, a senior currency strategist in Sydney at Westpac Banking Corp. “We needed something positive from the U.S. side to get back above 99, so now of course we start to think about 100 again.”
The yen slid 0.3 percent to 99.3 per dollar as of 8:47 a.m. in Frankfurt from May 3, when it slumped 1.1 percent. Japan’s currency touched a four-year low of 99.95 on April 11. It declined 0.3 percent to 130.17 per euro. Europe’s shared currency was little changed at $1.3108.
Markets in Japan and the U.K. are closed today for a holiday.
The yen depreciated beyond 99 per dollar on May 3 for the first time in a week after a U.S. Labor Department report showed employment picked up more than forecast last month and the jobless rate declined to 7.5 percent. Payrolls expanded by 165,000 workers last month following a revised 138,000 increase in March that was larger than first estimated.
Initial jobless claims probably rose in the seven days ended May 4 from a more than five-year low of 324,000 the week before. The median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News ahead of the May 9 report is for claims of 335,000.
Stronger Dollar
The world’s biggest currency dealers predict the dollar will strengthen as U.S. growth accelerates in the second half of the year. Deutsche Bank AG, Citigroup Inc., UBS AG and Barclays Plc forecast an advance of as much as 9 percent versus the euro by Dec. 31.
The dollar has gained 1.2 percent over the past six months, according to Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes that track 10 developed market currencies. The euro has risen 3.7 percent.
The yen has slumped 20 percent, the worst performer on the indexes, in anticipation of expanded stimulus from the Bank of Japan that culminated in the April 4 decision to double monthly bond purchases in pursuit of a 2 percent annual inflation target.
“Short-term speculative sentiment remains wholly yen negative and technically the market looks poised to try again at the 100-yen level,” Marc Chandler, the global head of currency strategy in New York at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co., wrote in a research note sent yesterday.
Retail Sales
In Australia, retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.4 percent in March after gaining 1.3 percent the previous month, a government report showed today. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg predicted a gain of 0.1 percent.
There’s a 51 percent chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia will lower its benchmark 3 percent rate when it meets tomorrow, Bloomberg calculations based on overnight-index swap rates indicate.
“We continue to expect a cut in the next few months with May a good chance,” National Australia Bank Ltd. analysts, led by Global Head of Research Peter Jolly, wrote in an e-mailed note to clients after the retail sales data.
The so-called Aussie slid 0.4 percent to $1.0275. It lost 0.5 percent to NZ$1.2034 after touching NZ$1.2016, the lowest since Oct. 6, 2009.
The Malaysian ringgit gained to 2.9625 per dollar, the strongest since September 2011. Najib’s coalition extended its 55-year rule, giving him a mandate to continue his economic reforms and deliver $444 billion of infrastructure and other investments by 2020.
To contact the reporters on this story: Kevin Buckland in Tokyo at kbuckland1@bloomberg.net; Masaki Kondo in Singapore at mkondo3@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Garfield Reynolds at greynolds1@bloomberg.net
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