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RTRS:Dollar reaches 102 yen after G7, market braces for further gains
 
(Reuters) - The yen fell below the 102 level to the dollar on Monday after Tokyo escaped direct criticism of its aggressive monetary easing program at the Group of Seven meeting over the weekend, greasing the Japanese currency's slide in the short term.

The dollar last bought 101.73 yen, having given up earlier gains that took it to 102.15 yen, its highest since October 2008.

"It looks like it was just one U.S. bank's purchase that pushed it over 102, so it made it in quite thin trade," said Kenichi Asada, manager of forex at Trust & Custody Services Bank.

"However, that it didn't manage to hold onto 102 doesn't mean the upside is heavy or that we're going to see a correction. All it needs is a push- it would not be strange to see it weaken by even a yen a day," he added.

Any wariness about selling the yen last week ahead of the G7 meeting vanished after Japan escaped censure for the aggressive monetary easing program unleashed by the Bank of Japan on April 4. Britain's finance minister George Osborne said that the G7's pledge to not target exchange rates had been adhered to.

Asada said foreign officials are likely more focused on the speed of the yen's drop rather than the level it reaches.

The dollar's breach of the 100 yen level last week was attributed by analysts and traders to signs of improvement in the U.S. labor market rather than as a result of the BOJ's actions. Data showing Japanese investors are buying more foreign assets also accelerated the yen's plunge on Friday.

"Getting over 100 was largely due to dollar strength across the board, which makes it difficult to judge just where the dollar-yen is headed," said Minori Uchida, chief FX analyst at the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ.

Uchida said that the April 2009 high of 101.45 had been a focal point, but after the dollar sailed easily past that level on Friday there is little consensus on where the yen's slide will stop.

"If or when it gets to 105 then people might start to say it's too weak--but on the other hand, people might be placated if the rally in the Nikkei continues," he added.

The Japanese currency has lost 10 percent against its U.S. counterpart since the Bank of Japan announced a sweeping monetary expansion campaign on April 4, and has slid 27 percent since mid-November. The Nikkei stock index has skyrocketed 71 percent in those six months.

The dollar index .DXY was trading 0.1 percent higher at 83.162 on Monday after jumping to a six-week high of 83.438 on Friday, when it closed below its 50-day moving average for the first time since April 17 after more positive signs from the U.S. labor market and renewed debate about the winding down of the central bank's asset buying program.

The dollar's strength kept the pressure on the Antipodean currencies, with the Aussie sagging 0.2 percent to $0.9988 after falling below parity on Friday to $0.9961, its lowest since June 2012.

Many analysts have turned bearish on the currency, with Barclays analysts warning in a note that the Aussie is overvalued by 20 to 25 percent on a trade basis, and that stabilizing Chinese growth would not be able to sustain this level.

Bart Wakabayashi, head of forex at State Street Global Markets, said the Reserve Bank of Australia's surprise rate cut last week and lowering of its inflation forecast had somewhat knocked the shine off the currency.

"The most attractive thing about the Aussie was the yield spread, so if that narrows it is obviously less desirable," he said.

"Some people feel quite uncomfortable with it being above $1 and prefer to see its range as $0.80-$1."

The Kiwi was steady at $0.8306, but it did not stray far from a two-month low of $0.8259 tapped in the previous session after an admission of currency intervention from the central bank spooked investors last week.

The euro slipped 0.2 percent to 131.91 yen after scaling 132.39 yen in early Asian trade, its highest since January 2010. Against the broadly strong dollar, the common currency dropped 0.1 percent to 1.2974, close to a one-month low of $1.2935 hit on Friday.
Source