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WSJ:Major Currencies Steady; South African Rand Falls Sharply
 

By Jessica Mead

Major currency pairs were steady in a calm European session Tuesday despite a strong performance by equity markets as London traders returning from a three-day weekend waited for U.S markets to reopen while the South African rand extended weakness after worse-than-expected economic growth data.

The euro hovered just above $1.29 against the dollar throughout the European morning while sterling was also broadly stable around $1.51 against the greenback. Yields on Spanish and Italian government bonds were also muted. By contrast, European equity markets rose following on from a positive session in Asia that saw the Nikkei close up 1.3%.

Strategists said the market's attention was firmly on the U.S. and further signs about the direction the Federal Reserve will take.

"I think maybe people are waiting for signals from the bond market. People will be looking at the recent highs in the 10-year US Treasury yield. If we break through there, that might jump start the FX market," said Paul Robson, senior currency strategist at RBS, which still favors additional rises for the dollar.

Last week, the 10-year US Treasury yield moved above 2.06% Earlier Tuesday, it was quoted at 2.05% but has since eased back a touch.

A string of U.S. data in the session ahead, including the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index at 1300 GMT and May consumer confidence at 1400 GMT, will therefore be closely watched.

It was left to emerging market currencies to provide the session's bigger moves. The South African rand dropped sharply, building on last week's weakness, in the wake of disappointing first-quarter economic growth numbers. The dollar climbed to as high as ZAR9.7472 against the rand--a fresh four-year high--after gross domestic product growth was up an annualized 0.9% on the quarter, below expectations for expansion of 1.6%.

In contrast, the Hungarian forint traded at its strongest levels against the euro since Dec. 21, 2012 ahead of the central bank's rate decision at 1200 GMT. Expectations are for a quarter-point cut to 4.5%. Strategists at Societe Generale see the recent rally in the forint as stretched. The euro traded below HUF287 against the forint.

At 1003 GMT, the euro was trading at $1.2925 against the dollar, compared with $1.2936 late Monday in New York, according to trading system EBS. The dollar was at Y102.09 against the yen, compared with Y101.78, while the euro was at Y131.93 compared with Y130.76. Meanwhile, the pound was trading at $1.5105 against the dollar, compared with $1.6266 late Monday in New York.

The Wall Street Journal Dollar Index, which tracks the dollar against a basket of currencies, was trading at 75.463, compared with 75.248 late Monday in New York.

A summary of key levels for chart-watching technical strategists is below:


Forex spot: EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD USD/CHF

Spot 1014 GMT 1.2925 102.05 1.5101 0.9684
3 Day Trend Range Range Range Range
Weekly Trend Bearish Bullish Bearish Bullish
200 day ma 1.3027 90.72 1.5573 0.9383
3rd Resistance 1.3030 103.00 1.5200 0.9839
2nd Resistance 1.2998 102.68 1.5175 0.9772
1st Resistance 1.2949 102.59 1.5155 0.9717
Pivot* 1.2931 101.17 1.5116 0.9624
1st Support 1.2884 101.57 1.5064 0.9620
2nd Support 1.2863 101.10 1.5015 0.9590
3rd Support 1.2821 100.66 1.4975 0.9521


Forex spot: EUR/SEK

Spot 1014 GMT 8.5873
3 Day Trend Bearish
Weekly Trend Range
200 day ma 8.5551
3rd Resistance 8.6081
2nd Resistance 8.6014
1st Resistance 8.5911
Pivot* 8.5934
1st Support 8.5770
2nd Support 8.5557
3rd Support 8.5492

Source