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WSJ:Crude Oil Stabilizes Ahead of US Employment Report
 
By Ben Winkley

LONDON--Crude oil futures have stabilized somewhat in early London trade Friday after the strong gains made over the last two weeks, during which time the gap between the two has narrowed to below $5 a barrel.

While Brent is still gaining some support from the uncertain political environment in the Middle East, WTI has come off a little after a boost from falling stockpiles. Some traders may be taking advantage of the timing of Independence Day to enjoy a long weekend, but those who remain will be keeping a weather eye on latest U.S. employment report.

At 0941 GMT, the front-month August Brent contract on London's ICE futures exchange was up 17 cents at $105.71 a barrel.

The front-month August light, sweet crude contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange was trading 24 cents lower at $101.00 a barrel.

U.S. nonfarm payrolls are expected to have risen by 160,000 in June after a 175,000 increase in May. The U.S. unemployment rate is seen at 7.5%, down from 7.6%. The data are closely watched for signs of health in the U.S., the world's largest oil-consuming economy.

In geopolitical terms the febrile situation in Egypt, where president Mohammed Morsi was ousted by the military, is providing some support for Brent. Although the front-month price is stable, the options market has turned short-term bullish, said Goldman Sachs.

Any disruption to Egyptian key transit routes of the Suez Canal or the SUMED pipeline could put some 3 million barrels a day at risk, Goldman said, with just 1 million barrels a day of available global spare capacity. But Egypt didn't suffer any physical oil disruption during the 2011 Arab Spring, Goldman noted, while Petromatrix said "if there is one thing that the military has control of in Egypt it is the Suez Canal."

The narrowing of the price difference between the two key benchmark prices, known as the Brent-WTI spread, should soon become permanent, according to Capital Economics.

The spread has been moving in consistently since hitting $23.44 a barrel in early February. Primarily, this "reflects the prospect of a further easing of the logistical constraints that have been holding back the traditional U.S. benchmark," Capital Economics said.

On a technical basis Brent should apply renewed pressure to Wednesday's high of $106.03 a barrel, according to Dow Jones chief technical analyst for Europe Francis Bray.

Bulls have the June 17 reaction high at $106.67 a barrel in their sights, said Mr. Bray, with another upside objective at $107.15 a barrel. Only a clean break below $104.69 a barrel would concern bulls, exposing the upside gap between $104.12 a barrel and $104.18 a barrel, he said.

WTI continues to consolidate beneath Wednesday's 14-month high at $102.18 a barrel, and there is limited downside risk to $99.88 a barrel, Mr. Bray said.

Recently, the ICE's gasoil contract for July delivery was up $2.50 at $904.75 a metric ton, while Nymex gasoline for August delivery was up 60 points at 2.8442 cents a gallon.
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