WSJ:Euro, Pound Softer Against Dollar Despite Positive Economic Data
By Chiara Albanese
The euro and the pound weakened against the dollar in European trading Thursday as strong economic data failed to provide a lift for the currencies.
A better-than-expected print of July's German Ifo Business Climate survey--a widely observed indicator of economic development--briefly lifted the euro to a day's high of $1.3239 against the dollar, but the rally was short-lived and within minutes of the release at 0800 GMT the currency was back trading below the $1.32 level.
"[Investors] read what they wanted in today's data. There is no significant trend in major currencies and the market is fairly neutral, with volatility calming down," said Steven Barrow, a foreign exchange strategist at Standard Bank in London.
The downward move in the euro came as investors' sold back the currency after their speculations on a even better reading of the survey were not confirmed, Mr. Barrow added.
"German IFO was close to forecasts, but it may have disappointed the markets after yesterday's strong PMI print," said Marc Chandler, head of currency strategy at BBH.
In the U.K., gross domestic product grew 0.6% between April and June compared with the first quarter. The acceleration in economic growth didn't provide a boost for the pound, which immediately fell almost half-a-cent to $1.5330 against the dollar.
"Sterling could struggle to perform given that the market seemed positioned for even better print. Some important downside risks for the pound remain in place going into the Bank of England meeting and next week," said Citigroup currencies strategist Valentin Marinov.
In other news, the New Zealand dollar continued to rally in European trading hours, hitting a one-month high against the greenback and its strongest level against the Australian dollar since November 2008. The moves came after New Zealand's central bank left rates unchanged overnight but surprised markets by suggesting that a 'removal of monetary stimulus will likely be needed in the future'.
"The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has continued to buck the trend among the non-US G10 central banks with a more hawkish-than-expected statement," said currency strategists at Morgan Stanley in a note to clients.
Looking ahead, U.S. weekly jobless claims and durable goods data are both due for release at 1230 GMT. After that, markets will start focusing on next week's policy meetings, from the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England.
At 1045 GMT, the euro was trading at $1.3196 against the dollar, compared with $1.3201 late Wednesday in New York, according to trading system EBS.
The dollar was at Y99.87 against the yen, compared with Y100.26, while the euro was at Y131.80 compared with Y132.33. The pound was trading at $1.5288 against the dollar, compared with $1.5309 late Wednesday in New York.
The Wall Street Journal Dollar Index, which tracks the dollar against a basket of currencies, was trading at 74.485, compared with 74.559 late Wednesday in New York.
A summary of key levels for chart-watching technical strategists is below:
Forex spot: EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD USD/CHF
Spot 1015 GMT 1.3185 99.90 1.5278 0.9384
3 Day Trend Bullish Range Bearish Range
Weekly Trend Bullish Range Bullish Bearish
200 day ma 1.3055 93.55 1.5480 0.9398
3rd Resistance 1.3256 101.05 1.5438 0.9478
2nd Resistance 1.3239 100.45 1.5391 0.9442
1st Resistance 1.3201 100.17 1.5307 0.9408
Pivot* 1.3211 100.03 1.5329 0.9368
1st Support 1.3165 99.71 1.5250 0.9338
2nd Support 1.3135 99.35 1.5220 0.9322
3rd Support 1.3110 99.14 1.5158 0.9300
Forex spot: AUD/USD
Spot 1015 GMT 0.9156
3 Day Trend Bearish
Weekly Trend Bearish
200 day ma 0.9956
3rd Resistance 0.9242
2nd Resistance 0.9225
1st Resistance 0.9181
Pivot* 0.9205
1st Support 0.9129
2nd Support 0.9110
3rd Support 0.8998