MW: Treasurys fall ahead of $72 billion of auctions
By Ben Eisen, MarketWatch
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Prices on longer-maturing Treasurys edged lower Tuesday ahead of three major auctions, as the bond market continues to look for signs of coming shifts in Federal Reserve monetary policy.
The 10-year Treasury note 10_YEAR +0.72% yield, which moves in the opposite direction to price, rose 2 basis points on the day to 2.661%. The 30-year bond 30_YEAR +0.64% yield rose 2.5 basis points to 3.751%, while the 3-year note 3_YEAR +1.34% yield rose half a basis point to 0.601%.
The Treasurys Department will sell $32 billion of 3-year notes at 1 p.m. Eastern as financial markets continue to fret over a wind-down in the Fed’s $85 billion-per-month bond-buying program, which could come as early as this fall. That has pushed yields up sharply for much of the past few months.
But the Fed has since emphasized that a scale-back, or tapering, of the program wouldn’t affect its near-zero short-term interest rates, which may anchor the shorter-term 3-year notes for the auction.
“Since the last 3-year auction in July, the Fed has reiterated its forward guidance, which should offer some downside protection for the front-end,” said Stanley Sun, a rates strategist at Nomura Securities, in a note. “In addition, positioning offers a relatively clean setup, which could help drive some demand.”
Sun added that a rise in 3-year note prices since July may also drive away investors looking for higher yields, on the whole positioning Treasurys for an average sale.
Long-term Treasurys, which are more sensitive to the Fed’s long-term monetary policy, will go on sale later in the week. That includes $24 billion of 10-year notes on Wednesday and $16 billion auction of 30-year bonds on Thursday.
Dennis Lockhart, president of the Atlanta Fed Bank added fuel to the taper discussion on Tuesday by suggesting in an interview that a scale-back in bond-buying could come during the October Fed policy meeting. Bond market participants largely expect tapering in September but Lockhart, who is not a voting member of the policy committee this year, said he will be watching economic data for signs of growth over the next few weeks.
Treasurys pushed slightly weaker after data showed Tuesday that the trade deficit shrank to its lowest level since 2009, which may act as a boost to second-quarter GDP growth. The trade gap declined to $34.2 billion in June from $44.1 billion in May, beating the expectations of MarketWatch-surveyed economists, who projected $43 billion.
Data also showed Tuesday that job openings rose to 3.94 million in June from 3.91 million in May.