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RTRS:FOREX-Euro extends losses as expectations of ECB stimulus grow
 
* Euro falls for 5th session as inflation slows
* UBS calls for ECB rate cut next week
* Euro/dollar implied vols jump on renewed spot weakness

By Anirban Nag
LONDON, Nov 1 (Reuters) - The euro fell to a two-week low
against the dollar on Friday, extending losses into a fifth
straight session as slowing euro zone inflation bolstered
expectations of looser monetary policy from the European Central
Bank.
The single currency's weakness was broad-based, as it
tumbled to a near three-week low against the yen and a
two-week trough against the British pound.
Its losses saw renewed demand to hedge against further
weakness with one-month euro/dollar implied volatilities
jumping to their highest in three weeks at 7.125
percent.
The euro fell to $1.3517 in European trade, its
lowest since Oct. 17 and down 0.4 percent on the day. It fell
1.1 percent the previous day.
The euro's latest drop accelerated after data on Thursday
showed euro zone inflation fell to a four-year low of 0.7
percent in October, way under the ECB's target of just below 2
percent.
"In light of those inflation numbers, we have changed our
call and are now expecting the ECB to cut its main refinance
rate at next week's meeting," said Geoffrey Yu, currency
strategist at UBS.
"While some in the market have pricing that in, quite a few
are not. We recommend investors to hold short positions in the
euro and add to those positions after the ECB meeting."
A depressed euro zone labour market showing unemployment
still at record highs in September will give the ECB another
reason to consider easing policy at Thursday's meeting.
That jobs report also included alarming revisions to
previous months, all of which bolstered the view that an
elevated currency is the last thing euro zone policymakers want.
"It should mean quite a lot for the ECB that inflation fell
below 1 percent. The slowdown in inflation does not seem to be
over yet," said Sho Aoyama, senior market analyst at Mizuho
Securities.
"They know Japan's experience of deflation and that once
deflation takes hold, it could take decades to get out of it."
Renewed pressure on the euro saw the dollar index rise to a
two-week high of 80.437, pulling further away from a
nine-month trough of 78.998 plumbed a week earlier.
In contrast to the euro zone, U.S. data was far more
encouraging. A strong Chicago activity survey fuelled
speculation the national ISM survey of manufacturing, due later
on Friday, could also surprise on the upside.
The upbeat data kept alive speculation the Federal Reserve
may scale back stimulus at its December meeting, though many
still tip March as the likeliest window for a move.
Source