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WSJ:Brent Crude Loses Over 2% on Interim Iran Deal
 
By Cassie Werber

LONDON--Brent crude fell 2% Monday in London following the weekend deal that will make it easier for Iran to export some of its crude oil to international markets over the next six months.

Brent crude for January delivery was down $2.25, or 2% at $108.80 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe. U.S. crude-oil futures were down $1.42 at $93.42 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The losses come on the back of Brent crude-oil futures climbing to a six-week high Friday on concerns over continued disruptions to Libyan oil exports and expectations of a continued stalemate in the Iran talks.

In a surprise development, however, the U.S. and five other world powers struck a historic accord with Iran on Sunday, agreeing to ease part of an economic stranglehold in exchange for steps to cap Tehran's nuclear program and ensure the Islamist government doesn't rush to develop atomic weapons.

Iran, in return, will gain relief from Western economic sanctions that U.S. officials believe will provide between $6 billion and $7 billion in badly needed foreign exchange for Tehran over the next six months.

Despite the dramatic price reaction, JBC Energy Markets analysts wrote that there is still a long way to go before all Iranian crude can re-enter the global marketplace.

The analysts said they would "caution against" betting on a continued fall in the price of crude futures "as the agreement should be seen as more of a symbolic measure hinting towards a potential long-term solution rather than a short term fix on the fundamental side."

The sanctions relief will have most impact on the petrochemical sector, since some direct sanctions are being lifted in that area. The transport of crude to countries that have been allowed to buy it via exemptions throughout the sanction period - such as China and Korea - will be facilitated. But no change has yet been made to the fundamental sanctions on crude itself.

More oil from Iran may also now "leak" into the market via unofficial channels, said brokerage PVM.

"Sanctions will not be tightened for the next six months, [and] we must assume that those countries still importing Iranian oil with U.S. approval will feel under less pressure to meet the volume limits that have been set. In short we must assume that leakage of Iranian barrels onto the market will increase," they wrote in a note to clients.

Asian buyers are likely to be the main beneficiary of the six-month interim deal, said Commerzbank.

"European insurers will in future be allowed to insure oil shipments from Iran again. The insurance ban enshrined in the sanctions had made it more difficult for Asian countries to import oil from Iran," they wrote.

With sanctions loosened, oil shipments from Iran to China, India, South Korea and Japan could increase.

Recently the ICE's gasoil contract for December delivery was down $12.00 at $925.75 a metric ton, while Nymex gasoline for December delivery was down 472 points at $2.6789 a gallon.
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