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BR:Thai baht at 2 month high after Q4 growth; rupiah at 3 month peak on inflows
 
SINGAPORE: The baht hit a near two-month high on Monday after Thailand's fourth quarter growth met expectations, while Indonesia's rupiah led gains among emerging Asian currencies following disappointing US economic data.
The baht rose as much as 1.0 percent to 32.27 per dollar, its strongest since Dec. 19, on sustained demand from offshore funds.
Thailand's economy grew a seasonally adjusted 0.6 percent in the October-December period from the previous quarter, matching a forecast from economists in a Reuters poll.
"The local political situation has improved, though uncertainty remains. The baht may still have some room to strengthen to recoup further the loss made since last October," said Frances Cheung, head of Asian rates strategy at Credit Agricole CIB in Hong Kong.
The baht may head to 32.00 per dollar in the next couple of weeks, Cheung added.
The Thai currency had been pressured by capital outflows amid ongoing political turmoil for more than three months.
Still, it is up 1.6 percent so far this year, the second best-performing emerging Asian currency as tensions have not resulted in serious violence yet, prompting some offshore funds to cover short positions as risk sentiment improves.
Investors, however, hesitated to add more bullish bets on the baht as there has not been any clear signs of political stabilisation.
The Thai state planning agency cut its forecast for growth this year and the central bank is expected to cut interest rates in March.
"Should the political crisis drag on it will certainly impact both exports and imports (with some degree of slipping export demand from abroad), and will have a more deleterious impact on production," Scotiabank said in a client note.
The baht has a chart resistance at 32.27, the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of its depreciation between September and January, traders and analysts said.
Some traders said the baht's gains on Monday were exaggerated as Thai financial markets were closed on Friday for a public holiday when most emerging Asian currencies rose after weak US data.
Regional currencies extended gains, led by the rupiah , as the dollar tanked after data showed US manufacturing output unexpectedly fell in January due to cold weather.
RUPIAH
The rupiah rose as much as 1.4 percent to 11,660 per dollar, its strongest since Nov. 20, as currency traders said custodian banks bought the currency to snap up Indonesia's bonds.
Most government bond yields fell, while Jakarta shares rose 0.8 percent.
The official Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (JISDOR) , which the central bank launched last year in an effort to manage exchange rate fluctuations, was fixed at 11,716 rupiah per dollar, its strongest since Nov. 22.
The rupiah has gained 4.05 percent against the dollar so far this year, becoming the best-performing Asian currency, according to Thomson Reuters data.
RINGGIT
The Malaysian ringgit rose as much as 0.5 percent to 3.2880 per dollar, its strongest since Jan. 16, on demand from leveraged funds.
Some investors took profits from the ringgit's gains, especially around 3.2900, traders said.
SINGAPORE DOLLAR
The Singapore dollar turned weaker after data showed the city-state's exports in January fell more than expected.
Singapore's non-oil domestic exports fell 3.3 percent in January from a year earlier, missing a forecast of a 1.2 percent slide, with domestic exports of electronics down 17.0 percent.
The Singapore dollar is also seen having a chart resistance at 1.2586, the 50 percent Fibonacci retracement of its depreciation between October and January, analysts said.
Still, some investors such as leveraged funds bought the Singapore dollar when it was weaker than 1.2600, locking it in a tight range, traders said.
Source