The Australian dollar was the best performer today after Australian retail sales beat expectations by more than double the forecast, while the nation’s trade balance posted a strong surplus. The upbeat data lessened the possibility of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia and helped sentiment for the AUD. Australian retail sales jumped by 1.2% m/m versus a consensus of 0.5% while the trade surplus widened to A$1.433 billion versus a previous A$591 million and above the A$270 million forecasted. The AUD/USD rallied to a high above 0.9030 while the AUD/JPY rose to a high above 92.60 yen. In other news overnight there was soft US data. The private payrolls processor ADP showed a tepid increase of 139,000 jobs in February, while jobs growth in January was revised down sharply to 127,000 from 175,000. The ISM non-manufacturing PMI fell to a 4-year low last month. However, the dollar remained buoyant as Fed policy maker Williams said yesterday that he expects the first rate hike to be in mid 2015. This gave a boost to the dollar. The USD/JPY rose to a high above 102.75 in Asia today, up from the session open of 102.30 and up 1.2% since Monday. The EUR/USD traded at $1.3728, little-changed in Asia but off 2-month high of $1.38255 hit on Friday. A key risk for the euro will be today’s European Central Bank meeting. Interest rates are expected to remain the same at 0.25% but many expect the central bank to end its SMP sterilization program, which means an end to bond buying that was draining liquidity. By ending this program, the increase in liquidity in the financial system of the Euro zone will weaken the euro. The GBP/USD was flat trading a 20-pip range above $1.6706. The Bank of England policy announcement will be in focus today.It is expected to be a non-event as the rate is predicted to remain at 0.50%.

Source