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FB: Gold Up, At 4-Week High; Safe-Haven Demand, Short Covering
 
(Kitco News) - Gold prices are moderately higher and hit a four-week high in early U.S. trading Monday. More safe-haven demand is featured amid the recent U.S. stock market sell-off. Short covering by the futures traders, whose bearish bets recently are not paying off, and bargain hunting in the cash market are also seen in gold to start the trading week. A lower U.S. dollar index is also a bullish “outside market” factor working in favor of the precious metals market bulls Monday. December Comex gold was last up $5.80 at $1,227.50 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted up $3.80 at $1,227.25. December Comex silver last traded up $0.117 at $17.42 an ounce.

The U.S. government and U.S. Treasury markets are closed for the Columbus Day holiday Monday. There are also no major U.S. economic reports due for release. That could make for a more subdued market place to start the trading week. The stock market bulls are certainly hoping for a respite Monday, following late last week’s beat-down.

There was upbeat economic data coming out of China Monday. Import prices rose 7% in September, while exports were up 15% in the period. This is good news for raw commodity market bulls, as China is the world’s largest importer of raw commodities.

The U.S. dollar index is solidly lower Monday, as the greenback bulls are fading a bit after pushing prices to a four-year high last week. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures are lower Monday morning and hovering near last week’s two-year low. There are now cracks starting to develop in the OPEC oil cartel, as reports said member countries are offering discounts on their oil, to preserve their market share. I look for crude oil prices to continue their slide in the near term, including possibly pushing below $80.00 a barrel.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 6.0 (The market place is focused on the prospect of weakening world economies amid a U.S. stock market sell-off. This is causing some keener risk aversion to start the trading week, although the U.S. holiday Monday will likely keep trading more subdued.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge investor risk appetite in the world market place each day. Each day I assess the “risk-on” or “risk-off” trader mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1 to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10 being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

The London A.M. gold fixing is $1,228.00 versus the previous P.M. fixing of $1,219.00.

Technically, gold bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, the bulls are making a move to just begin to suggest a market bottom is in place. But the bulls still have heavy lifting to do in the near term to better suggest such. The gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,250.00. Bears’ next near-term downside breakout price objective is closing prices below solid longer-term technical support at $1,200.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $1,238.00 and then at $1,245.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $1,223.60 and then at Friday’s low of $1,217.60.

December silver futures bears still have the firm near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $18.00 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $16.64. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $17.72 and then at $18.00. Next support is seen at Friday’s low of $17.205 and then at $17.055.
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