BLBG: Brent Crude Drops as Japanese Recession May Curb Demand
Brent crude dropped, extending eight weeks of declines, amid concern that demand will fall after Japan, the world’s third-largest oil consumer, unexpectedly sank into a recession. West Texas Intermediate also fell.
Futures slid as much as 1.9 percent in London as Japan’s economy shrank an annualized 1.6 percent in the third quarter, a second successive drop. Iran’s oil minister is preparing to visit the United Arab Emirates this week, according to Shana, the Tehran-based ministry’s news service. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is scheduled to meet Nov. 27.
Brent has declined about 32 percent from a June peak as leading OPEC members resisted calls to cut output and instead reduced some export prices while U.S. production climbed to the highest level in more than three decades. Venezuela, Libya and Ecuador have asked for action to support crude as the 12-member group prepares to meet in Vienna. Brent gained 2.5 percent on Nov. 14.
“After Friday’s brief rally it looks like normal service has been resumed today after those disappointing Japanese GDP numbers,” Michael Hewson, market analyst at London-based CMC Markets Plc, said by e-mail. “Slowing demand there, given the country is a big oil importer, doesn’t bode well for demand.”
Brent for January settlement fell as much as $1.47 to $77.94 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange and was at $78.67 a barrel at 11:27 a.m. local time. The contract gained $1.92 to $79.41 a barrel on Nov. 14. The European benchmark crude was at a premium of $3.37 to WTI for the same month. Front-month prices slid an eighth week through the end of last week, the longest run of declines since the contract began trading in 1988.
OPEC Visits
WTI for December delivery slid as much as $1.11 to $74.71 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract gained $1.61 to $75.82 on Nov. 14. The volume of all futures traded was about 62 percent above the 100-day average for the time of day.
Iran’s OPEC Governor Hossein Kazempour, national representative Mehdi Asali and the country’s head of the oil contracts committee Mehdi Hosseini will accompany minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh to the U.A.E., Iran’s oil ministry said.
Iraqi President Fouad Masoum and Libyan Prime Minister Abdullah al-Thani flew to Riyadh last week for separate talks with Saudi officials. Rafael Ramirez, Venezuela’s foreign minister and representative to OPEC, held talks in Algeria and Qatar, while Saudi Arabia’s Ali Al-Naimi toured Latin America.
Demand Slump
Saudi Arabia probably favors maintaining production, according to Barclays Plc. Al-Naimi’s comments on Nov. 12 that the kingdom’s oil policy hasn’t changed, along with “the tone on demand recovery” in OPEC’s monthly report, signals that doing so is a preferred option to cutting output, analysts including Miswin Mahesh in London said in a report today.
“The market is really going to be focused on the outcome of the meeting,” Ric Spooner, a chief strategist at CMC Markets in Sydney, said by phone today. “There doesn’t seem to be indications so far of a production cut.”
Oil consumption will slide by about 1 percent to 92.6 million barrels a day in the first quarter from the current three-month period, according to the Paris-based International Energy Agency. Barring new supply disruptions, the seasonal demand slump will push prices lower, it said in a monthly market report.
Speculators became more bullish on WTI for the first time in three weeks, judging that a slump in prices will force OPEC to act. The net-long position in the New York contract rose 8.7 percent in the week ended Nov. 11, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Long holdings rebounded from the lowest level in 17 months while short bets contracted.
To contact the reporters on this story: Ben Sharples in Melbourne at bsharples@bloomberg.net; Rupert Rowling in London at rrowling@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Alaric Nightingale at anightingal1@bloomberg.net Rachel Graham, Randall Hackley