ABC: Global Stocks Resilient Despite Ongoing Oil Price Slide
Oil prices fell further Tuesday but European stock markets proved resilient, in a further sign that investors are gearing up for the possibility of a new, big stimulus from the European Central Bank.
KEEPING SCORE: In Europe, France's CAC 40 was up 1.2 percent at 4,280 while Germany's DAX rose 1.1 percent to 9,889. The FTSE 100 index of leading British shares was 0.5 percent higher at 6,534. U.S. stocks were poised to open higher, with both Dow futures and the broader S&P 500 futures up 0.6 percent.
OIL TANKS AGAIN: The relentless drop in oil prices shows few signs of abating as the benchmark New York rate fell below $45 a barrel for the first time in around six years amid speculation that the OPEC oil cartel won't be reducing production levels any time soon. One of the reasons behind the recent precipitous fall in oil prices was OPEC's reluctance to cut production, which has stoked talk that Saudi Arabia, in particular, is hoping lower oil prices will drive many shale gas producers out of business. The New York rate was down 2.8 percent at $44.76 a barrel while the international standard, Brent, fell 3.1 percent to $47.19.
ANALYST TAKE: "You get the impression that the only way OPEC would be willing to discuss production cuts at this stage is if similar cuts were agreed by the U.S. shale companies," said Craig Erlam, market analyst at Alpari. "Given the debt levels of these companies and their costs, I would not be surprised if this happened in the coming months."
ECB GEARING UP: Over the past few trading sessions, there have been signs that stock markets are dislocating from oil markets. At the end of 2014, there were concerns among stock investors that the fall in oil prices was a function of a worsening global economic backdrop. Now, it appears, particularly in Europe, that traders are looking forward to the prospect of more stimulus from the ECB next Thursday. If the bank does back a program to buy government bonds, there will be an ensuing flow of new money into financial markets ? in the recent past, that's helped to shore up stocks, particularly in the U.S. The euro, though, continues to struggle on the QE speculation, falling 0.3 percent to $1.1795 and near nine-year lows.
ASIA'S DAY: Benchmarks were mixed across the region, with Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 index dropping 0.6 percent to end at 17,087.71. South Korea's Kospi edged 0.2 percent lower to 1,917.14. Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 0.8 percent to 24,215.97 and the Shanghai Composite Index crept up 0.2 percent to 3,235.30.
CHINA TRADE: Customs data showed that Chinese exports grew 9.7 percent in December over a year earlier, while imports shrank 2.4 percent. The results were better than analysts had forecast and may hint at the recovery in store for China's exporting industries as U.S. demand continues to recover. The news gave a bigger lift to stocks in Hong Kong than Shanghai, where there may be less room for the index to rise after a spectacular surge late last year.
TOKYO TOLL: Tokyo stocks fell as investors got their first chance since last week to react to global events, including the continued tumble in oil prices, as the exchange reopened following a holiday. Investors were also factoring in some short term gloom after the government, according a Kyodo report on Monday, cut its growth forecast for the 2014 fiscal year, which ends in March, to 0.5 percent, although it raised its 2015 forecast to 1.5 percent.