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MW: This sector is what’s keeping S&P 500 rally hopes alive
 
Brace for Tuesday, because the market is ready to throw the kitchen sink at investors. Housing data, more earnings, and comments from three Federal Reserve members, including Chairwoman Janet Yellen, are on their way.

And all this market needs is a little hawkish commentary to keep moving lower, says IG’s David Madden. Stock futures are certainly pointing in that direction, even if China stocks did better overall. If you can’t call on Oprah Winfrey to save the whole stock market, as some may be wishing today, then maybe it’s time to look elsewhere.

Enter Joe Public. Retail sales and consumer discretionary earnings are going to signal where stocks will go in 2016, predicts Robert Keiser, vice president of Global Markets Intelligence, blogging for S&P Capital.


“We suspect that the relatively healthy prospects currently characterizing a single sector, consumer discretionary, summarizes why investors so far have refused to throw in the towel when it comes to their collective optimism for the equity market,” says Keiser.

Earnings for companies that sell goods and services that people want, but don’t necessarily need, are tapped to rise 12% in the third quarter, then see 15% to 18% quarterly growth throughout 2016, says Keiser. That’s a barometer of the U.S. economy’s health and how well it can generate decent profits, he adds. More in his blog here.

Our “call of the day” is also pushing stocks in this sector, and says now is the time to de-junk that portfolio and fill it with quality names like Starbucks and Apple. Note, the consumer discretionary sector tends to get more popular when people think the economy is about to perk up. And as our calls says, consumers are probably going to just keep spending. And as our call says, consumers are probably just going to keep spending.

At least for the festive season: A retail survey out today (see “quote of the day”) reveals that people are going to spend more on the holidays this year than ever before. Add that to the news that Amazon is hiring 100,000 more workers to cope with their expected holiday rush. Ho, ho, ho.

Key market gauges
Dow YMZ5, -0.12% and S&P ESZ5, -0.21% futures have trimmed some losses after housing data and as earnings roll in, but are still in the red. Crude oil CLZ5, +0.63% is trying to recover some from yesterday’s beatdown. Gold GCZ5, +0.07% is flat, and the dollar DXY, -0.23% is holding steady as investors ready for this week’s ECB meeting. Asia ADOW, -0.71% was mixed, with some gains out of the Nikkei NIK, +0.42% but losses for the Hang Seng HSI, -0.37% Europe SXXP, -0.46% is pulling back from a two-month high.

The economy
After two months of declines, housing starts rose 6.5% to a 1.21 million annual rate in September.

Though Yellen can’t comment on interest rates during the Fed's blackout period, she can speak on other matters, and at 11 a.m. Eastern, she will give “brief welcoming remarks” at a Labor Department ceremony.

Earnings
Ahead of the bell, Harley Davidson HOG, -7.80% shares are getting crushed in premarket, down 6% after the company cut its full-year motorcycle shipment outlook. United Tech UTX, -1.02% profit beat estimates, but sales fell short. Travelers TRV, +0.40% profit and revenue topped estimates and shares are up 3%.

Yahoo YHOO, +0.39% Chipotle CMG, -0.56% and Discover DFS, -1.27% are due after the bell.

IBM IBM, -0.78% posted another quarter of declining revenue last night, and its shares are down nearly 5% in premarket.

Watch for more reaction from Rambus RMBS, +0.87% after weak revenue numbers and a disappointing outlook from the semiconductor company last night.

Amazon AMZN, +0.42% and Microsoft MSFT, +0.23% are other big names to watch in a heavy earnings week. Check out our Earnings Wall.

The buzz
CEO Tim Cook says Apple AAPL, +0.62% has 6.5 million paid subscribers for Apple Music, in an interview at WSJDLive 2015. He also said the new version of Apple TV will start shipping at the end of next week. Find out more on what he had to say in Apple CEO Tim Cook on a ‘massive’ shift for cars and 4 other things on his mind.

SanDisk SNDK, +7.58% is up 8% on a report yesterday the flash memory maker is in advanced talks to be bought by Western Digital WDC, +1.21%

Yum YUM, -0.62% shares are surging on reports the company will spin off its China business.
Amazon AMZN, +0.42% is looking to fill 100,000 seasonal jobs for the holidays.

United’s UAL, +1.39% CEO Oscar Munoz is taking medical leave after a heart attack. General Counsel Brett Hart will step in.

Jefferies thinks “video ads will become a multibillion-dollar business for Facebook FB, +0.95% within the next two years,” and lifted its price target to $130 from $120 per share.


Netflix NFLX, +2.73% could be brining Gilmore Girls back. Cue swoon.

The call
Enough of the junky stocks in your portfolio, says strategist Adam Parker and his team at Morgan Stanley.

Morgan Stanley divides stocks into four different buckets — high, moderate, low quality or junk — and says hedge funds have been favoring the latter, owing to market volatility. Urging investors to break away from that trend, Parker says now is the time to up exposure to high-quality companies. He cites compelling free-cash-flow yield (used by those who think cash flow is a better indicator than earnings of how much a share will return) and valuations in his rationale.

So Parker has added 4% to the high quality bucket and cut the same amount from the lower quality pile. Morgan Stanley now owns Starbucks SBUX, +1.74% Discover Financial Services DFS, -1.27% American Express AXP, -0.27% Capitol One COF, -0.04% and MasterCard MA, +0.10% while it has axed 21st Century Fox FOXA, +0.00% and Huntington Bancshares HBAN, +0.00%

“We continue to think the consumer will spend more, and we like owning the credit cards as a way to play this theme,” says Parker. His top-five high quality stocks? Apple, Pfizer PFE, +0.26% , Verizon VZ, +0.00% , Oracle ORCL, -1.34% and UnitedHealth UNH, +0.63% Here’s a chart of the team’s latest sector recommendations:

Source